The Conversation -- January 15, 2024

Trump Urges Iowans to Die for Him. Really. Nick Robertson of the Hill: "Former President Trump encouraged his Iowa supporters to caucus for him at any cost, joking that due to extreme winter weather, 'even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it.'... 'You can't sit home. If you're sick as a dog, you say, "Darling, I gotta make it,"' Trump said at an Indianola rally on Sunday. 'Even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it, remember.' Meteorologists warned of 'life-threatening' conditions in Iowa for the weekend as the state prepares to caucus. Trump canceled three of his four in-person Iowa events Sunday due to the freezing cold and snow." MB: Show of hands if you think Trump was "joking."

Dan Lamothe of the Washington Post: "Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was released from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on Monday, the Pentagon said, ending a two-week hospitalization he had kept secret for days after developing serious complications from a surgery to treat prostate cancer.... 'Now, as I continue to recuperate and perform my duties from home, I'm eager to fully recover and return as quickly as possible to the Pentagon,' [Austin said]. It was not immediately clear how long that may be."

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: ";Joseph Tacopina, the trial lawyer on Donald J. Trump's legal team with the most successes defending high-profile clients, will no longer represent the former president in his criminal trial in Manhattan, according to a notice sent to the court on Monday. Mr. Tacopina also withdrew on Monday from another case in which he was still legally representing Mr. Trump: an appeal of the verdict in a lawsuit brought by the writer E. Jean Carroll. Mr. Trump was found liable for sexual abuse and defamation last year and was ordered to pay Ms. Carroll $5 million." A Law & Crime story is here.

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Marie: Many people think today is Iowa Caucus day, and many people think it's the day before their estimated taxes are due, and some people will think it's Emmy Awards day, and many people think it's a day off when the weather sucks, but I think it's ~~~

Olivia Alafriz of Politico: "President Joe Biden had a blunt message after voters in Taiwan elected a new president Saturday: 'We do not support independence' for Taiwan. Biden's words, delivered as he departed for Camp David, reinforced the administration's position to Taiwan's new president Lai Ching-te, who has faced strong opposition from China over his calls for independence. The administration has clarified that while it does not support Taiwanese independence, it favors dialogue between Taipei and Beijing and expects differences to be resolved peacefully and without coercion." (Also linked yesterday.)

Catie Edmondson of the New York Times: "Congressional leaders unveiled stopgap legislation on Sunday to avert a partial government shutdown, teeing up a race to pass the bipartisan spending deal into law before a deadline at the end of the week. The bill, which came out of a spending deal negotiated by Speaker Mike Johnson and Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, would temporarily extend funding for some federal agencies until March 1 and for others through March 8. It would keep the government funded at its current spending levels, without any policy changes or conditions.... In a sign that Democrats were preparing to muster the bulk of the [House] votes to pass the bill, Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the minority leader, signaled his backing of the bill on Sunday night."

Presidential Race 2024

Patrick Marley of the Washington Post: "While Iowa's [caucus] system allows citizens to frequently meet candidates, it also results in lower voter participation. In 2016, the last time there were competitive primaries for both parties, just 15.7 percent of eligible voters attended either Republican or Democratic caucuses. A week later, more than half the eligible voters in New Hampshire cast ballots in that state's primary.... Voters must be at their precincts at 7 p.m. Central time on Monday, where they will hear speeches from representatives of the candidates, fill out ballots and, if they want, observe as the votes get tallied. No early or absentee voting is allowed, except for a tiny number of military service members.... Democrats in Iowa shifted to a mail-in primary after the Democratic National Committee rearranged its nominating schedule." Besides having to contend with January weather, people with disabilities are not protected by federal accessibility laws as are those who participate in primaries.

Lisa Lerer & Michael Gold of the New York Times: "Republican presidential hopefuls crisscrossed frozen Iowa on Sunday in the final sprint to the nation's first nominating contest, with ... Donald J. Trump ramping up his attacks on Nikki Haley.... Ms. Haley received a boost earlier Sunday when Larry Hogan, the former Republican governor of Maryland and a prominent Trump critic, used a CNN appearance to urge rivals of Mr. Trump to unite behind her.... In his lone campaign rally of the weekend, Mr. Trump assailed Ms. Haley, [Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis and those who 'crave to destroy the MAGA movement.' Framing the caucuses in dark terms, he called the voting on Monday a chance to score 'ultimate victory' over enemies he described as 'liars,' 'cheaters' and 'thugs.'" This is a liveblog. MB: I saw a very short clip of Trump at his supposed rally, and he looked listless and fatigued. I understand now why he is claiming Joe Biden has no energy -- he himself seems to have almost none. ~~~

     ~~~ NBC News also ran a liveblog of developments Sunday.

Elizabeth Spiers of the New York Times is surprised Nikki Haley learned about slavery in the second and third grade, as she claims, because "Haley attended a segregation academy, a type of private school established in the years after the Supreme Court's 1954 decision in Brown v. Board of Education by white parents who did not want their children attending school with Black children." Spiers describes her own education at a segregation school in Alabama. For example, "My fifth-grade teacher told us that if Jesus were alive in Alabama he would have been a white Dixiecrat, that God frowns on what she called race mixing and that children who are the products of interracial marriages are to be pitied because they're mistakes.... If you want to understand why evangelical conservatives are waging war on public libraries and universities, it's precisely because they expose kids to facts that undermine the kind of indoctrination I received."

Everybody Running Against Biden Wants to Ditch the Constitution. Brittany Gibson ofPolitico: "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Sunday defended his family's role in authorizing government surveillance of Martin Luther King, Jr.... [In Atlanta,] Kennedy [told Politico] that his father, Robert F. Kennedy -- who authorized the wiretapping of King as attorney general -- and President John F. Kennedy permitted the eavesdropping because they were 'making big bets on King, particularly in organizing the March on Washington.... They were betting not only the civil rights movement but their own careers. And they knew that Hoover was out to ruin King,' said Robert Kennedy Jr., referring to J. Edgar Hoover, the FBI director at the time.... 'My father gave permission to Hoover to wiretap them so he could prove that his suspicions about King were either right or wrong,' he continued. 'I think, politically, they had to do it.'" ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Nice way to honor MLK: "It's okay to violate a civil rights leader's civil rights if it's in your own political interest to do so."

Rick Rojas & Sean Keenan of the New York Times: "Fani T. Willis, the district attorney in Fulton County, Ga., pushed back on Sunday against the criticism and questions about her judgment that have followed a court filing accusing her of being romantically involved with an outside lawyer she hired to lead the racketeering case against ... Donald J. Trump. Ms. Willis emerged from almost a week of silence to address the congregation at one of the oldest Black churches in Atlanta, which had invited her to be the keynote speaker for a service dedicated to the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. She did not address the allegation that she was in a relationship with Nathan Wade, the special prosecutor she hired in 2021, who has earned more than $650,000 in the job to date. Instead, what Ms. Willis detailed were the frustrations and struggles that she said she has faced not only as a prosecutor, but also as a Black woman taking on the most powerful figure in the Republican Party. She said the scrutiny of her hiring of Mr. Wade reflected the racism directed at her, adding that he had 'impeccable credentials' that were being questioned only because both she and Mr. Wade were Black." The Huffington Post's report is here.

Herb Scribner of the Washington Post: "Business Insider and its parent company, Axel Springer, said Sunday that they stand by their reporting that a prominent former MIT professor committed plagiarism in her work, an allegation that ignited a storm of social media criticism from her billionaire husband, Bill Ackman.... Early this month, Business Insider published two stories that alleged that Neri Oxman, a former MIT professor, had plagiarized some of her work.... The stories came after her husband, the hedge fund manager Ackman, pushed Harvard University to oust then-President Claudine Gay over concerns that she had mishandled student protests and committed plagiarism in her career.... In a social media post on Jan. 7, Ackman said Business Insider's investigations editor was an anti-Zionist who had targeted Oxman because she's Israeli. Axel Springer, in response to Ackman's criticisms, said last week that it would conduct an internal review to find out what happened before the Oxman stories were published."

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Iowa. Livia Albeck-Ripka of the New York Times: "A principal shot earlier this month in a school shooting in Perry, Iowa, has died from his injuries, the funeral home handling the services confirmed on Sunday. The principal, Dan Marburger, 56, was shot on Jan. 4 by a 17-year-old student at Perry High School, who opened fire at the school in the early morning as students were returning from winter break. The gunman, Dylan Butler, shot Mr. Marburger and five students, killing one of them, Ahmir Jolliff, a sixth-grader.... A a website raising funds for [the principal's] family ... noted that the principal, who had served the school since 1995, had 'endured significant injuries' on Jan. 4, 'putting himself in harm's way to ensure as many students and staff could safely exit the building.'" Politico's story is here.

Texas, Where the Cruelty Is the Point. Sneha Dey of the Texas Tribune: "A woman and two children drowned trying to cross the Rio Grande, near the Eagle Pass park that Texas troopers have taken control over, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed on Saturday. State officers and National Guard members have been denying federal Border Patrol agents entry to the 47-acre Shelby Park since early this week. When Border Patrol agents received a call Friday evening from the Mexican government about the migrants in distress, Texas officials barred the federal agents from entering the area and providing aid, according to a DHS spokesperson. The Border Patrol officers made unsuccessful attempts to contact the Texas Military Department, National Guard and Department of Public Safety via telephone about the distress call. When the officers went to the park entrance to verbally notify the state, Texas Military Department personnel denied them entry, U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar said in a written statement. 'Texas Military Department soldiers stated they would not grant (Border Patrol) access to the migrants -- even in the event of an emergency -- and that they would send a soldier to investigate the situation,' Cuellar said in the statement on X.... U.S. Custom and Border Protection condemned the state actions in a statement to The Texas Tribune." Thanks to RAS for the lead. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ Devan Cole of CNN: "Texas officials told the Supreme Court early Saturday that the state is 'working promptly' to ensure US Border Patrol agents have access to a boat ramp used to launch patrol boats into the Rio Grande, a day after the Biden administration complained to the court that the state had effectively blocked agents' access to a key part of the US-Mexico border." Texas claimed it had no idea Border Patrol needed the boat ramp for "surveillance, patrol, and humanitarian rescue." MB: Really? Why not? Why, it's almost as if Greg Abbott didn't for one moment consider the consequences of his order to block federal access to a state park that borders the Rio Grande. As for "working promptly," I'd say not promptly enough. People died. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ Update. Camilo Montoya-Galvez of CBS News: "The Biden administration on Sunday demanded that Texas officials stop preventing federal Border Patrol agents from entering a section of the U.S. southern border commandeered by state National Guard soldiers last week, calling the actions 'clearly unconstitutional.'... If the Texas National Guard does not heed the Biden administration's demand and cease its efforts to block Border Patrol's access to a public park in the border town of Eagle Pass, the Department of Homeland Security will refer the matter to the Justice Department and explore other options, Jonathan Meyer, the top lawyer at DHS, warned in his letter to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton."

Cruelty Is the Point, Ctd. Kim Bellware of the Washington Post: "State and city officials in Chicago are scrambling to adapt their plans for sheltering asylum seekers as Texas's governor disregards pleas to suspend migrant transports as dangerously low winter temperatures bring new urgency to the city's ongoing humanitarian crisis. Chicago continues to receive new arrivals sent north by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) even as the area experiences its coldest temperatures in half a decade, with wind chills bottoming out at minus-32 degrees on Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.... [Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), said Sunday,] '... when we've asked [Abbott] to stop sending people because of the weather, because of the dangerous nature of this winter storm that we're experiencing now, he's refused to stop sending them. So he does not care about people. He doesn't care about the migrants.'" MB: From the Abbott Immigration Policy Handbook: If you can't drown them, freeze them.

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Denmark. Karla Adam of the Washington Post: "Denmark welcomed a new king on Sunday in a ceremony that didn't feature crowns or scepters or multiple robes -- but it did have huge crowds, a tearful balcony moment, and a celebration of hygge, a fuzzy Danish word that captures the country's more relaxed style. Denmark reinvented tradition on Sunday when 83-year-old Queen Margrethe II, Europe's longest-serving monarch, gave up her throne, and her 55-year-old son became King Frederik X. Royal successions are usually prompted by a death. But this one was different -- with the outgoing queen playing a starring role.... A sea of Danes braved freezing temperatures ... and waved their country's flag and sang their national anthem. 'My hope is to become a unifying king of tomorrow,' Frederik said from the balcony of Christiansborg Palace in central Copenhagen, the seat of the Danish government. He wiped away tears. He kissed his wife, now Queen Mary, who was born in Australia. The crowd -- waving Danish and some Australian flags -- roared with delight."

Israel/Palestine, etc.

The Washington Post's live updates of developments Monday in the Israel/Hamas war are here: "A U.S. fighter jet shot down a missile fired from a Houthi-controlled area in Yemen toward a U.S. Navy destroyer in the Red Sea, Central Command said, adding that there were no reported injuries or damage. Israel has made clear in recent discussions that its high-intensity military campaign in Gaza will continue throughout January, U.S. officials told The Washington Post, despite pressure from the Biden administration for restraint as civilian casualties soar.... The missile fired toward the USS Laboon on Sunday afternoon appears to be the first attack from Houthi-controlled areas against a U.S. vessel since American-led forces started striking the militant group's infrastructure in Yemen last week in retaliation for assaults on commercial ships in the Red Sea." ~~~

     ~~~ The New York Times' live updates for Monday are here. CNN's live updates are here.

Alex Horton of the Washington Post: "The Navy SEALs lost at sea after a ship-boarding operation went awry near Somalia last week were dispatched to look for suspected Iranian weapons bound for militants in Yemen, which has become a staging ground for repeated attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, two U.S. officials familiar with the incident said Sunday. The two service members who went missing were preparing to board the ship in rough seas when one of them slipped from a ladder. The second sailor, seeing their comrade fall into the water, dove in to help.... The incident occurred Thursday in the Gulf of Aden."

News Lede

CNN: "About 79% of US to see below freezing temperatures: Over 140 daily cold records could be broken Monday and Tuesday from Oregon to Mississippi, as temperatures in Memphis, Dallas and Nashville are expected to stay below freezing for at least 72 consecutive hours. The coldest Iowa caucuses on record are forecast Monday, with below-zero high temperatures and wind chills in the minus 30s expected. Dangerous Monday morning commutes: Combined with the cold, the slick wintry precipitation won't melt on untreated surfaces for the Monday morning commute in places like Dallas and Shreveport, Louisiana, making travel more dangerous. Accumulating ice is expected from Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. 'Have a cold survival kit if you must travel,' the National Weather Service said."

The Conversation -- January 14, 2024

Olivia Alafriz of Politico: "President Joe Biden had a blunt message after voters in Taiwan elected a new president Saturday: 'We do not support independence' for Taiwan. Biden's words, delivered as he departed for Camp David, reinforced the administration's position to Taiwan's new president Lai Ching-te, who has faced strong opposition from China over his calls for independence. The administration has clarified that while it does not support Taiwanese independence, it favors dialogue between Taipei and Beijing and expects differences to be resolved peacefully and without coercion."

Sneha Dey of the Texas Tribune: "A woman and two children drowned trying to cross the Rio Grande, near the Eagle Pass park that Texas troopers have taken control over, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed on Saturday. State officers and National Guard members have been denying federal Border Patrol agents entry to the 47-acre Shelby Park since early this week. When Border Patrol agents received a call Friday evening from the Mexican government about the migrants in distress, Texas officials barred the federal agents from entering the area and providing aid, according to a DHS spokesperson. The Border Patrol officers made unsuccessful attempts to contact the Texas Military Department, National Guard and Department of Public Safety via telephone about the distress call. When the officers went to the park entrance to verbally notify the state, Texas Military Department personnel denied them entry, U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar said in a written statement. 'Texas Military Department soldiers stated they would not grant (Border Patrol) access to the migrants -- even in the event of an emergency -- and that they would send a soldier to investigate the situation,' Cuellar said in the statement on X.... U.S. Custom and Border Protection condemned the state actions in a statement to The Texas Tribune." Thanks to RAS for the lead. ~~~

     ~~~ Devan Cole of CNN: "Texas officials told the Supreme Court early Saturday that the state is 'working promptly' to ensure US Border Patrol agents have access to a boat ramp used to launch patrol boats into the Rio Grande, a day after the Biden administration complained to the court that the state had effectively blocked agents' access to a key part of the US-Mexico border." Texas claimed it had no idea Border Patrol needed the boat ramp for "surveillance, patrol, and humanitarian rescue." MB: Really? Why not? Why, it's almost as if Greg Abbott didn't for one moment consider the consequences of his order to block federal access to a state park that borders the Rio Grande. As for "working promptly," I'd say not promptly enough. People died.

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Lisa Friedman of the New York Times: "John Kerry, President Biden's special envoy for climate, plans to step down by spring, ending a three-year run in a major diplomatic role that was created especially for him and which will face an uncertain future with his departure. Mr. Kerry, 80, has served as the president's top diplomat on climate change since early 2021.... On Wednesday, Mr. Kerry met with Mr. Biden in the White House to inform the president of his intention to resign, according to one person familiar with the meeting. On Saturday, his staff learned of his decision at a hastily arranged meeting.... [Mr. Kerry] is widely expected to get involved in the 2024 presidential campaign to help raise awareness of Mr. Biden's work on climate change." The Guardian's story is here.

Rebecca Kaplan, et al., of NBC News: "House and Senate leaders have reached an agreement on a short-term spending deal that would avert a government shutdown in the next few weeks, three sources familiar with the matter told NBC News. The deal would keep the government funded until March, buying legislators more time to craft longer-term, agency-specific spending bills, following the agreement last weekend to set the overall spending level for fiscal year 2024 at $1.59 trillion." Thanks to Ken W. for the link.

Trump thanks Gambino Crime Family mobster, rat, and serial liar Sammy ‘the Bull’ Gravano, who confessed to 19 murders and countless kidnappings, armed robberies, burglaries & 1000s of other felonies, for vouching for him. Trump’s new character witness. pic.twitter.com/YuRW2ixIUt

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) January 13, 2024

     ~~~ Marie: So who do Republicans think is worse? A president* who cites a mob boss as a character witness or a president who wears a tan suit in August? On a serious note, Jim Acosta of CNN points out that Trump's putting a mobster in the same sentence as two judges overseeing his cases constitutes a threat; as in, "Yo, Judge, just to remind you, I have a professional killer on my side." Thanks to RAS for the link. Via digby. ~~~

     ~~~ Sara Boboltz of the Huffington Post: "Gravano infamously turned on his boss -- the original 'Teflon Don,' John Gotti -- to become a witness for the government in the early 1990s, helping put Gotti behind bars until his death. Trump earned the same nickname during his political career.... From his new home in Phoenix, Arizona, Gravano has publicly admitted to being involved in 19 homicides, including 'a few' in which he personally killed someone -- explaining in a November interview with AZ Family, a local news station: 'When I'm ordered to kill, I kill.'"

Presidential Race 2024

Iowa. Colby Itkowitz & Scott Clement of the Washington Post: "... Donald Trump is polling at 48 percent in Iowa, maintaining his wide lead over his two main rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, according to the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Medicom poll released Saturday night.... The latest poll shows that former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley has seized the No. 2 with 20 percent support over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 16 percent. The poll is widely considered an important benchmark ahead of the Iowa caucuses, revealing voters' preferences. The results are always widely anticipated, revealing who may be gaining momentum in the final days of the race." The Des Moines Register story is here.

Guns America Goes Postal. Nate Raymond of Reuters: "A federal judge in Florida on Friday ruled that a U.S. law that bars people from possessing firearms in post offices is unconstitutional, citing a landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling from 2022 that expanded gun rights. U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, an appointee of ... Donald Trump in Tampa, reached that conclusion in dismissing part of an indictment charging a postal worker with illegally possessing a gun in a federal facility.... [The] Supreme Court's June 2022 ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen ... ruling recognized for the first time that the Second Amendment protects an individual's right to carry a handgun in public for self-defense. It also established a new test for assessing firearms laws, saying restrictions must be 'consistent with this nation's historical tradition of firearm regulation.'... Mizelle said that while post offices have existed since the nation's founding, federal law did not bar guns in government buildings until 1964 and post offices until 1972. No historical practice dating back to the 1700s justified the ban, she said." ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Say, Judge, is it "traditional" to allow folks to carry guns into your courtroom? Is it traditional to surmise that your safety is more important than the safety of postal workers & customers?

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New York Congressional Race. Nicholas Fandos of the New York Times: "The Republican nominee in a special House election to replace George Santos in New York provided a hazy glimpse into her personal finances this week, submitting a sworn financial statement to Congress that prompted questions and led her to amend the filing. The little-known candidate, Mazi Pilip, reported between $1 million and $5.2 million in assets, largely comprising her husband's medical practice and Bitcoin investments. In an unusual disclosure, she said the couple owed and later repaid as much as $250,000 to the I.R.S. last year. But the initial financial report Ms. Pilip filed with the House Ethics Committee on Wednesday appeared to be missing other important required information.... And despite making past statements that she stopped working there in 2021 when she ran for the Nassau County Legislature, Ms. Pilip reported receiving a $50,000 salary from the family medical practice in 2022 and 2023.... After inquiries from The New York Times, Ms. Pilip materially amended the statement on Friday."

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Israel/Palestine. The Washington Post's live updates of developments Sunday in the Israel/Hamas war are here: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu marked 100 days of the war by saying 'nobody will stop' Israel's forces until their 'total victory,' while dismissing the case it faces at the International Court of Justice over allegations of genocide.... The head of the Israel Defense Forces, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, said the IDF had approved plans to 'increase military pressure on Hamas,' focusing on the center and south of the Gaza Strip. 'We are operating freely in Lebanese airspace,' he added in a warning to Hezbollah.... [In Tel Aviv,] relatives of hostages Hamas took from Israel on Oct. 7 are holding a 24-hour rally to mark the 100th day of their loved ones' captivity and to demand that Israeli authorities secure their release. Organizers estimate that 120,000 people attended the start of the rally Saturday night...." ~~~

     ~~~ The New York Times' live updates for Sunday are here. CNN's live update are here. ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: This remarkably brutal war is working out rather well for Bibi. It is difficult to remove a head-of-state during an active war; no one thinks there's much chance of Israel's gaining "total victory" over Hamas, particularly when Israel's method is anathema to Palestinians -- and to people all over the world. So the war -- and Netanyahu -- will always be with us.

Alex Horton & Ellen Nakashima of the Washington Post: "A search-and-rescue operation was underway Saturday after two U.S. Navy SEALs fell into the ocean while attempting to board a ship off the coast of Somalia, according to current and former officials.... One U.S. official with knowledge of the incident said it was unrelated to the recent U.S.-led strikes in nearby Yemen and the broader international mission to protect commercial vessels from militant attacks originating there. It was also unrelated to the Iranian seizure of a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker, the official said. U.S. Central Command, which coordinates military activities in the region, said the missing service members were Navy sailors and declined to provide additional information 'until the personnel recovery operation is complete.'"

Taiwan. Eric Cheung, et al., of CNN: "Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party pulled off a historic third consecutive presidential victory on Saturday as voters shrugged off warnings by China that their re-election would increase the risk of conflict. Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's current vice president, declared victory on Saturday evening while his two opposition rivals both conceded defeat." (Also linked yesterday.)

Ukraine, et al. Thomas Gibbons-Neff of the New York Times: "Ukraine's military prospects are looking bleak. Western military aid is no longer assured at the same levels as years past. Ukraine's summer counteroffensive in the south ... is over, having failed to meet any of its objectives. And now, Russian troops are on the attack, especially in the country's east. The town of Marinka has all but fallen. Avdiivka is being slowly encircled. A push on Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut, is expected. Farther north, outside Kupiansk, the fighting has barely slowed since the fall.... For now, Ukraine is in a perilous position. The problems afflicting its military have been exacerbated since the summer. Ukrainian soldiers are exhausted by long stretches of combat and shorter rest periods. The ranks, thinned by mounting casualties, are only being partly replenished, often with older and poorly trained recruits."

News Lede

Weather, Weather Everywhere. CNN: "An ongoing Arctic blast enveloping much of the US will set the stage for impactful snow and ice to fall in parts of the South for the first time this winter as a new storm tracks through the region. The South storm will be the fourth in the last two weeks to threaten major impacts to areas east of the Rockies as a frenetic start to 2024 shows no signs of stopping. Damaging ice and wind combined with deadly results in Oregon Saturday. On Sunday, serious lake-effect snow was ongoing in Buffalo, New York; blinding snow squalls were possible across the Northeast; and strong winds were still kicking up snow and affecting travel in the Midwest." Otherwise, it looks like a nice day!

The Conversation -- January 13, 2024

Matthew Impelli of Newsweek, republished by Yahoo! News: "More than 1,500 books have been temporarily removed from [the Escambia County, Florida, Public School District] this week, including two written by former Fox News host Bill O'Reilly.... While speaking with Newsweek on Friday, O'Reilly said the temporary removal of his books is 'absurd [and] preposterous.'... 'This is insane,' O'Reilly said, adding that he is seeking further action by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to address this situation.... A district spokesperson clarified that the books included on the list obtained by the Florida Freedom to Read Project 'have not been banned or removed from the school district; rather, they have simply been pulled for further review to ensure compliance with the new legislation.'" Thanks to Forrest M. for the lead. He notes that other reporting indicates O'Reilly supported the school library book bans when they were being legislated.

Eric Cheung, et al., of CNN: "Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party pulled off a historic third consecutive presidential victory on Saturday as voters shrugged off warnings by China that their re-election would increase the risk of conflict. Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's current vice president, declared victory on Saturday evening while his two opposition rivals both conceded defeat."

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Helene Cooper & Eric Schmitt of the New York Times: "Two U.S. officials said on Friday night that American forces had carried out another round of strikes against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, bombing a radar facility there. It was the second round of strikes against Houthis in two days, following a coordinated, American-led air and naval assault a day earlier on nearly 30 Houthi targets in Yemen. The new strikes came hours after a White House spokesman [John Kirby] denied that strikes were intended to ignite a wider regional war, which Houthi leaders and their allies vowed to respond to." This is part of a liveblog. An ABC News report is here. ~~~

     ~~~ Steven Erlanger, et al., of the New York Times: "From the outbreak of the Israeli-Hamas war nearly 100 days ago, President Biden and his aides have struggled to keep the war contained, fearful that a regional escalation could quickly draw in American forces.... There is no longer a question of whether there will be a regional conflict. It has already begun. The biggest questions now are the conflict's intensity and whether it can be contained.... After issuing a series of warnings, officials said, Mr. Biden felt his hand was forced after a barrage of missile and drone attacks on Tuesday were directed at an American cargo ship and the Navy vessels around it.... Over the course of 12 weeks, attacks on Israeli, American and Western interests have come from Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, prompting modest, carefully targeted responses from American and Israeli forces. The United States also issued warnings to Iran, which the Americans say is acting as a loose coordinator. What was notable about the retaliatory strike in Yemen was its breadth: Employing fighter jets and sea-launched missiles, U.S. and British forces, backed up by a small number of other allies, hit a wide number of Houthi missile and drone sites."

Zach Montague of the New York Times: "President Biden said on Friday that he maintained confidence in Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, but faulted him for not notifying the White House for days this month about his hospitalization after complications from prostate cancer surgery. Mr. Biden made the succinct remarks, his first in-person comments on a matter that has raised grave questions about national security and the chain of command, in response to reporters' shouted questions as he toured small businesses in Pennsylvania.... Asked whether it was a lapse in judgment for Mr. Austin not to have notified him sooner, Mr. Biden responded, 'Yes.'... The communications breakdown ... has ... raised questions about the Defense Department's competence and Mr. Austin's credibility." The AP's report is here.

Zoe Richards of NBC News: "President Joe Biden announced Friday that federal student debt will be wiped out for certain borrowers who took out relatively small loans and have been in repayment for the past decade. Borrowers who received less than $12,000 in federal loans and have been paying off their balances for at least 10 years 'will get their remaining student debt cancelled immediately' in February, Biden said in a statement. He said that the move comes 'nearly six months ahead of schedule' and that it applies to borrowers enrolled in the new income-driven repayment plan known as SAVE, which administration officials touted in recent months as a way to help lower their monthly payments." ~~~

     ~~~ President Biden's statement is here, via the White House.

Andrew Keshner of Market Watch: "Millionaires who were behind on their taxes have already paid a half-billion dollars to get current with the IRS as the agency ratchets up high-level tax compliance. On Friday, the IRS unveiled new numbers on the amount of back taxes paid by millionaire households ever since a 2022 upgrade brought tougher IRS enforcement on businesses and superwealthy tax delinquents and dodgers. IRS officials said they've pulled in a further $360 million from millionaire households with at least $250,000 in tax debts. That follows an October IRS announcement that $160 million in delinquent taxes had been raked back from wealthy households. That's $520 million altogether -- and a strong initial return on investment for a multibillion-dollar funding influx, according to IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel....

"There's an uncertain future for a portion of the money tied to [the IRS's] tougher stance, though. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 authorized $80 billion to the IRS over a decade. More than half the money was earmarked to revive flagging enforcement of corporations, partnerships and rich households.... But in a deal to lift the debt ceiling, the White House agreed with House Republican negotiators to redirect $20 billion elsewhere." MB: Because Republicans do not want their wealthy benefactors to have to pay even the relatively low taxes they are required to pay (relative to former tax rates, that is). So this is an IRS boast that could prove to be self-defeating.

Maxine Joselow of the Washington Post: "The Environmental Protection Agency on Friday proposed steep new fees on methane emissions from oil and gas facilities, escalating a crackdown on the fossil fuel industry's planet-warming pollution. The proposed rule represents one of the biggest sticks in a White House climate strategy that has so far dangled carrots. President Biden's signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, offers generous financial rewards for businesses that reduce their emissions, but it provides few punishments for companies that fail to do so."

Catie Edmondson & Kayla Guo of the New York Times: "Speaker Mike Johnson said on Friday that he stood by the spending deal he negotiated with Democrats to avert a government shutdown, spurning demands from ultraconservatives who have pressured him to jettison the agreement. The announcement, after days of public silence about what he would do, all but guaranteed that Mr. Johnson will have to work with Democrats in the coming days to pass a short-term bill to keep the government funded past a pair of deadlines on Jan. 19 and Feb. 2, going back on his promise to never bring up another temporary spending measure." Related NYT & Politico stories linked below. (Also linked yesterday.)

Mikey Finds Some New Friends. Scott Wong of NBC News: "A handful of moderate Democrats say they would be willing to save the new Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, if hard-line conservatives move to oust him from power as they did his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy. 'Yes, we would back him,' said one senior moderate House Democrat who has been speaking with colleagues in his party.... Since Johnson announced the bipartisan spending deal last weekend, some bomb-throwers in his party have threatened a motion to vacate -- a tool that any one lawmaker can use to force a vote to depose a speaker. It's an option 'on the table,' Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, a member of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus...."

Jacqueline Alemany of the Washington Post: "Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, sent a letter to ... Donald Trump on Friday demanding the return of the $7.8 million that his businesses received from foreign governments and officials when he was president, along with a full accounting of profits accrued during his presidency. Raskin's request comes after Trump defended the profits he earned from foreign governments while in office during a town hall on Fox News this week.... 'If I have a hotel and somebody comes in from China -- that's a small amount of money. But I was doing services for them,' Trump said. House Democrats have argued that the payments violated the Constitution's foreign emoluments clause, a provision that bars federal officials, including the president, from accepting money or gifts from foreign governments without permission from Congress." MB: Gosh, why hasn't the chair of the committee, Jim Comer (R-Ky.), jointed Raskin's demand?

Luke Broadwater of the New York Times: "Hunter Biden argued Friday that the subpoenas House Republicans have issued to him are invalid, his latest attempt to counter the contempt of Congress case that Republicans are pursuing against him as part of their impeachment inquiry into his father. In a letter to Congress, Mr. Biden's lawyer, Abbe Lowell, argued that the subpoenas do not carry legal weight because they were authorized before the House had voted to open an impeachment investigation into President Biden.... 'If you issue a new proper subpoena, now that there is a duly authorized impeachment inquiry, Mr. Biden will comply for a hearing or deposition,' Mr. Lowell wrote." ~~~

     ~~~ Emily Brooks & Alex Gangitano of the Hill: "Hunter Biden reversed course Friday and said he would agree to give closed-door testimony to Congress if the House Oversight and Judiciary committees issue new subpoenas." ~~~

     ~~~ Kevin Breuninger of CNBC: Republican chairmen of two House committees "later said that they would work with [Hunter] Biden to schedule a date for a private deposition as part of an ongoing impeachment probe of his father, President Joe Biden. But until Hunter Biden confirms that date, they will move ahead with a plan to have the full House of Representatives vote late next week on a resolution holding him in contempt of Congress for defying prior subpoenas demanding his closed-door testimony."

Trump & the Trump Mob. v. Justice

"The Grand Finale." Michael Kruse of Politico Magazine: "For literally more than 50 years, according to thousands of pages of court records and hundreds of interviews with lawyers and legal experts, people who have worked for [Donald] Trump, against Trump or both, and many of the myriad litigants who've been caught in the crossfire, Trump has taught himself how to use and abuse the legal system for his own advantage and aims.... 'He has attacked the judicial system, our system of justice and the rule of law his entire life,' said J. Michael Luttig, a conservative former federal appellate judge.... 'And this to him,' Luttig told me, 'is the grand finale.'... That Trump would win the White House on a populist platform while preying on poor people -- it's a paradox that confounds his critics.... People don't trust the system. They trust Trump. And that's because Trump's told them to -- for 50 years." Thanks to RAS for the link. ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: None of knows what will happen in the next year or so vis-à-vis Trump, but we have to hope that even in the short run, but more importantly in the long run, the "system" -- and that includes you and me -- will stamp out Trump. Kruse suggests that Trump's efforts to bend & break the American judicial system have been smart. IMO, that's like saying that a mobster who tortures & kills his opponents is smart. I continue to think that Trump is an essentially stupid brute.

Reversal of Rhetoric. Kyle Cheney & Betsy Swan of Politico: "In the months after the 2020 election, Donald Trump leaned on his campaign to launch ad blitzes and legal challenges to the results, insisting to his supporters that the election was 'a long way from over.' He even told state and federal courts he was suing in his capacity as a political candidate. Now, in a bid to derail criminal charges, he's saying the opposite. At least six times in the past two weeks, Trump has declared that the election was 'long over' by the time he began pushing state officials and then-Vice President Mike Pence to overturn his defeat. It's a new piece of rhetoric that's meant to bolster Trump's assertion of 'presidential immunity' from his criminal charges for interfering with the transfer of power. He wasn't a candidate anymore, Trump's new theory goes, so he must have been doing his job as president to ensure elections are fair." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Earlier this week, we were pointing out that Trump's legal arguments are components of a shell game in which he reveals one that suits the circumstance, whether or not that argument contradicts one that he's used before and is hidden under one of the other nutshells, ripe to be pulled out again if a different circumstance fits the old argument. Here's yet another instance of the same ole game.

Ha Ha. Brandi Buchman of Law & Crime: "A judge in New York has ordered Donald Trump to fork over nearly $400,000 in legal fees underpinning a now-dismissed lawsuit he brought against the newspaper and a trio of its reporters when they published a bombshell series of reports on his history of tax schemes and 'riches' reaped from his father. The order was first reported by Times reporter Susanne Craig, one of the report's authors. Per the order, fees are also due to reporters David Barstow and Russ Buettner. The claim from Trump was dismissed by a New York Supreme Court judge last May, who found that reporters were 'entitled to engage in legal and ordinary news-gathering activities without fear or tort liability -- as their actions are at the very core of protected first amendment activity.'... In fact, the in-depth, deeply-sourced report won a Pulitzer Prize and exposed a massive empire 'riddled with tax dodges,' award judges said at the time." (Also linked yesterday.)

Diane Falzone of Mediaite: “Roger Stone has contested Mediaite's reporting this week regarding comments he made on tape floating the assassination of two members of Congress [Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) & Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.)].... He wrote that Mediaite 'has produced NO audio of me threatening 2 Dem Congressmen. Where is it? Post it !' Mediaite is now publishing an excerpt of the audio, which was recorded ... weeks before the 2020 election. It has been lightly edited in order to protect our source, who requested anonymity out of fear of repercussions from Stone, whom they believe to be dangerous." (Also linked yesterday.)

Jesus Jiménez of the New York Times: "A member of the Proud Boys extremist group who threatened police officers with an ax handle and breached the U.S. Capitol during the attack on Jan. 6, 2021, was sentenced on Friday to nearly five years in prison, federal prosecutors said. Judge Timothy J. Kelly of U.S. District Court in Washington sentenced the man, William Chrestman, 51, of Olathe, Kan., to 55 months in prison. Mr. Chrestman pleaded guilty in October to felony charges of obstruction of an official proceeding and threatening a federal officer. The judge also ordered Mr. Chrestman to pay $2,000 in restitution, and his prison sentence will be followed by three years of supervised release, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia said in a statement on Friday."

Presidential Race 2024

Iowa. The Blizzard of '24. Natalie Allison, et al., of Politico: "Republican presidential candidates braced for a once-in-a-decade blizzard on Friday, a bitter forecast that derailed their campaign plans three days before the Iowa caucus -- and threatened to drive down turnout on Monday.... The National Weather Service office in Des Moines issued a Blizzard Warning for much of the state through early Saturday morning, warning that falling snow and strong winds could lead to whiteout conditions, making driving and air travel hazardous or even next-to-impossible, especially in rural areas.... Temperatures are expected to plunge for the rest of the weekend, including caucus night, with life-threatening wind chills as low as minus-45 across the state. The severe weather followed snow-related event cancellations earlier this week by Haley and Trump, and has prevented the final surge of campaign operatives, national reporters and candidates' surrogates from being able to arrive in the state."

DeSantis Tells Part of the Truth about Fox. Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: Florida Gov. Ron "DeSantis seems to have turned on many of the news outlets that once promoted his candidacy, for being unfair in their coverage. 'He's got basically a Praetorian Guard of the conservative media -- Fox News, the websites, all this stuff,' Mr. DeSantis told reporters outside his campaign headquarters in Urbandale, Iowa. 'They just don't hold him accountable because they're worried about losing viewers....' While the former [MB: ???] governor's own criticisms of Mr. Trump are relatively muted, he has urged conservative news media to be more critical.... Mr. DeSantis, who once constantly criticized the mainstream news media, has shifted gears and gives interviews to mainstream outlets like CNN and even left-leaning networks like MSNBC."

Oregon. Marshall Cohen of CNN: "The Oregon Supreme Court on Friday declined to hear a bid to remove ... Donald Trump from the 2024 ballot based on the 14th Amendment's 'insurrectionist ban,' saying it's waiting for the US Supreme Court to rule on the issue." (Also linked yesterday.)

Alex Wagner's lead segment last night on how Donald Trump has normalized violence as a poltical tool:

David French of the New York Times: "Eight years of bitter experience have taught us that supporting Trump degrades the character of his core supporters.... The most enduring legacy of a second Trump term could well be the conviction on the part of millions of Americans that Trumpism isn't just a temporary political expediency, but the model for Republican political success and -- still worse -- the way that God wants Christian believers to practice politics.... Polling data again and again backs up the reality that the right is abandoning decency.... An increasing percentage [of Republicans] are now tempted to embrace political violence.... The Economist reported on the astonishing number of Christian Republicans who believe Donald Trump is God's chosen man to save America.... In the upside-down world of MAGA morality, vice is virtue and virtue is vice.... Trump's core supporters ... [are] often deliberately rude, transgressive or otherwise unpleasant, just to demonstrate how little they care about conventional moral norms." Thanks to laura h. for the link. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Michele Goldberg of the New York Times: "Evangelical leaders who started their alliance with Trump on a transactional basis, then grew giddy with their proximity to power, have now seen MAGA devour their movement whole.... If the polls are right, Iowa's evangelicals don't care what their ostensible [religious] leaders think.... The power of Christian-right operatives ... came from their ability to move their followers, but Trump has taken that power away from them, absorbing it into himself." MB: Why is it I'm not all broken up that somebody stole the pastors' candy? Trump reached into his handy bag o' lies and promised them a temporal salvation just as tasty as Trump steaks. No waiting for the judgment day. Both the gullible & the greedy are tithing at the Temple of Trump.

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New York. Carolyn Thompson of the AP: "Federal prosecutors said Friday that they will seek the death penalty against a white supremacist who killed 10 Black people at a Buffalo supermarket. Payton Gendron, 20, is already serving a sentence of life in prison with no chance of parole after he pleaded guilty to state charges of murder and hate-motivated domestic terrorism in the 2022 attack. New York does not have capital punishment, but the Justice Department had the option of seeking the death penalty in a separate federal hate crimes case. Gendron had promised to plead guilty in that case if prosecutors agreed not to seek the death penalty. The decision marks the first time that President Joe Biden's Justice Department has authorized a new pursuit of the death penalty."

** Texas. Arelis Hernandez & Nick Miroff of the Washington Post: “National Guard troops under Texas Gov. Greg Abbott's command are blocking U.S. Border Patrol agents from a stretch of the Rio Grande, the Biden administration said in an emergency appeal [to the U.S. Supreme Court] Friday, heightening tensions over how to handle a record migrant influx. Texas Department of Public Safety and National Guard officials began erecting fencing and razor wire around the riverfront Shelby Park Wednesday in Eagle Pass, the border crossing where thousands of migrants have arrived in recent months.... [Federal] government lawyers said in a court filing Friday that Texas cannot control Border Patrol's access to the river or dictate their duties. The state's border with Mexico along the Rio Grande is an international boundary under the jurisdiction of federal authorities.” MB: Is secession next, Greggers? Texas' use of force against a federal agency strikes me as extraordinary. But, you know, impeach Alejandro Mayorkas.

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Israel/Palestine, et al.

The Washington Post's live updates of developments Saturday in the Israel/Hamas war are here. Includes items on the Houthi strikes. CNN's live updates for Saturday are here.

Emily Rauhala & Steve Hendrix of the Washington Post: "Israel on Friday rejected allegations that it is committing genocide in Gaza, arguing before the International Court of Justice that the soaring death toll was an unavoidable consequence of its battle against a militant army that has embedded itself in civilian areas and seeks to repeat the Oct. 7 attacks. In a landmark hearing Thursday, South Africa outlined its claim that Israel's bombing and siege of Gaza showed its 'intent' to commit genocide against Palestinians and urged the court to order a stop to the violence. During three hours of remarks on Friday, the Israeli delegation dismissed the plausibility of genocide in Gaza and said that ordering Israel to stop military operations would leave Israeli civilians at risk. They accused South Africa of presenting a 'grossly distorted' picture by largely ignoring the role of Hamas in the fighting and of 'weaponizing' the international convention against genocide."

News Lede

Washington Post: "Tom Shales, a Pulitzer Prize-winning television critic for The Washington Post who brought incisive and barbed wit to coverage of the small screen and chronicled the medium as an increasingly powerful cultural force, for better and worse, died Jan. 13 at a hospital in Fairfax County, Va. He was 79."