"The 40 Percent Nation"

David Brooks is at his 100 percent best, which is none too good, when he assesses Egypt's ability to master a democratic form of government.  He concludes, "It’s a 40 percent nation, mediocre in the world rankings, but not a basket case," but, "if led wisely, it has a reasonable shot at joining the normal, democratic world." He writes,

Many countries end up in a ‘gray zone,’ with semi-functioning governments and powerful oligarchies.... But the quality of the educational system is terrible.... The government’s economic reform effort illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of the governing institutions.... Socially, the country seems stymied. The biggest gap, by far, is political.

The Constant Weader comments:

Mr. Brooks, if you had not kept typing the word “Egypt” in between the sentences I cited, I would have thought you were writing about the U.S.

Egypt has the one thing a country seems to need to govern itself – a middle class. That’s how we got started, after all. We had a group of educated men and gentlemen farmers, and a whole lot of illiterate men and women, some of whom were slaves, and none of whom was allowed to vote or otherwise enjoy full participation in the government.

Please look at the history of our own democracy before you look down your nose at Egypt and label it a “40 percent nation.” And, speaking of fractions of the whole, even though Egyptians invented arithmetic, they don’t count anyone as three-fifths of a person. I’d say the odds are at least as good as ours were that Egyptians can develop a functioning democratic system. They won't want to use us as a model, though.

The Commentariat -- February 5

Job Opening. Dictator of Egypt. Annual Pay -- $2 Billion. Susanna Kim of ABC News: "Experts say the wealth of the Mubarak family was built largely from military contracts during his days as an air force officer. He eventually diversified his investments through his family when he became president in 1981. The family's net worth ranges from $40 billion to $70 billion, by some estimates." ...

... Wall Street Pit: "... gross national income is $2,070 per family in Egypt with about 20% of the population living below the poverty line." ...

... Meanwhile, in Iraq, Al-Maliki Gets the Message. Lara Jakes of the AP: "Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will not run for a third term in 2014, an adviser said Saturday, limiting himself in the name of democracy and with an eye on the popular anger directed at governments across the Middle East.... Al-Maliki adviser Ali al-Moussawi said the premier also wants to change the Iraqi constitution before he leaves to limit all future prime ministers to two terms.... Saturday's stunning announcement follows al-Maliki's decision a day earlier to return half of his annual salary to the government — a move he said aimed to narrow the wide gap between rich and poor Iraqis." ...

... Craig Whitlock & Greg Jaffe of the Washington Post: "... both President Hosni Mubarak and the people calling for his head are counting on the country's military leadership to secure Egypt's political future, even if neither is sure where its loyalties will end up. The 470,000-strong Egyptian military is far more than just a defense-related institution; like the Chinese military, it controls a wide array of factories, hotels and businesses, and its generals constitute a stratum of Egypt's elite." ...

Washington interlocutors should be prepared to meet an aged and change-resistant [Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein] Tantawi. He and Mubarak are focused on regime stability and maintaining the status quo through the end of their time. They simply do not have the energy, inclination or world view to do anything differently. -- then-Ambassador Francis J. Ricciardone, from a 2008 WikiLeaked cable

... Mark Mazetti of the New York Times: "President Obama has criticized American spy agencies over their performance in predicting and analyzing the spreading unrest in the Middle East, according to current and former American officials. The president was specifically critical of intelligence agencies for misjudging how quickly the unrest in Tunisia would lead to the downfall of the country’s authoritarian government....' ...

... Liz Sly of the Washington Post: "Since the country's pro-democracy protests first erupted Jan. 25, [Al Jazeera's] phone lines have been cut, nine of its staffers have been detained at various times, its satellite signal has been repeatedly blocked and on Friday, al-Jazeera said..., a 'gang of thugs' stormed its bureau, smashing equipment and setting it ablaze. Yet throughout, al-Jazeera has remained on air, broadcasting live pictures of the masses gathered in Tahrir Square with pre-positioned cameras and airing phone interviews with analysts and correspondents across the country. And in what represents perhaps an ultimate act of defiance to the effort to shut the network down, demonstrators in the square have rigged up a giant screen so that even those protesting can follow al-Jazeera's supposedly banned coverage." ...

... Souad Mekhennet & Nicholas Kulish of the New York Times describe their 24-hour detention in Cairo: "Our detainment threw into haunting relief the abuses of security services, the police, the secret police and the intelligence service, and explained why they were at the forefront of complaints made by the protesters." ...

... Reeza Aslan in the Washington Post on the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egyptian politics: "For decades the United States has swallowed Mubarak's lie that ... even the slightest weakening of his oppressive, authoritarian regime would result in the immediate takeover by radical Islamists.... Now, the same lie is being peddled to Americans by people like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, two men whose views on the role of religion and politics are almost identical to those of the Muslim Brotherhood." ...

... CW: here's something startling I learned from Aslan's post: "Six-in-ten Americans (61%) say it is important that members of Congress have strong religious beliefs." -- Pew Research Center. I guess that makes me a thirty-niner.

Here's my Super Bowl coverage. Every bit of it. Ben McRath of the New Yorker on "Football and Concussions": "... trying to remove violence from football, as the N.F.L. now seems bent on doing, is like trying to remove the trees from a forest.... Credit for the public’s increased awareness of these issues must go to the Times, and to its reporter Alan Schwarz...."

Right Wing News

** History Lesson/Fact Check. Will Bunch in the Washington Post outlines "Five Myths about Ronald Reagan." Here's one: "Reagan was a tax-cutter.... While wealthy Americans benefitted from Reagan's tax policies, blue-collar Americans paid a higher percentage of their income in taxes when Reagan left office than when he came in."

Ginny Gets a Job. Eric Lichtblau of the New York Times: "The wife of Justice Clarence Thomas, who has raised her political profile in the last year through her outspoken conservative activism, is rebranding herself as a lobbyist and self-appointed 'ambassador to the Tea Party movement.' ... She promised to use her 'experience and connections' to help clients raise money and increase their political impact." Oh, yeah.

New York Times Editors: "Both [Justices Scalia & Thomas] seem to have trouble with the notion that our legal system was designed to set law apart from politics...."

Gail Collins, who is usually funny, is not funny today. Her column on House Republicans' "Siege of Planned Parenthood" is an exposé of sheer depravity.

Dana Milbank reviews former Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld's 815-page memoir: "... after four years of reflection, Rumsfeld remains dismissive of those less brilliant than he is -- which is pretty much everybody."

Ben Dimiero of Media Matters: Fox "News" Headline: "Obama Botches Bible Verse at Prayer Breakfast." Well, not exactly. He was reading from the NIV, the most commonly-accepted modern English translation of the Bible, but the biblical scholars at Fox apparently hadn't heard of any translation made after 1604.

House GOP: We're Cutting Your Benefits, Not Ours. Andrew Taylor of the AP: "A new GOP proposal would reduce domestic agencies' spending by 9 percent ... [and] could lead to layoffs of tens of thousands of federal employees, big cuts to heating and housing subsidies for the poor, reduced grants to schools and law enforcement agencies, and a major hit to the Internal Revenue Service's budget. Congress, on the other hand, would get nicked by only 2 percent, or $94 million."

Rick Scott, the Worst Governor in the U.S., will unveil his state budget proposal at a tea party event. Now that's one brilliant way to conduct state business. Via the St. Pete Times. ...

... AND defenestrated Rep. Mark Foley trolls for Young Republicans. Via CNN.

News Items

Washington Post: "Egyptian opposition parties opened negotiations Saturday with Vice President Omar Suleiman in an apparent concession after earlier insisting they would not agree to talks until Mubarak steps down. Suleiman met with representatives from several opposition parties, although it was not clear whether the largest -- the Muslim Brotherhood -- had participated." The WashPo story has been updated; the new lede: "The united front among Egyptian opposition parties fractured Saturday as several of them began negotiating with Vice President Omar Suleiman, despite earlier promises that they would not agree to talks until President Hosni Mubarak stepped down." Wall Street Journal story here. ...

... AP: "State TV says the top leadership body of Egypt's ruling party, including the president's son Gamal Mubarak and the party secretary-general Safwat el-Sharif, resigned Saturday in a new gesture apparently aimed at convincing anti-government protesters that the regime is serious about reform." ...

... New York Times: "The Obama administration on Saturday formally threw its weight behind a gradual transition in Egypt, backing attempts by the country’s vice president, Gen. Omar Suleiman, to broker a compromise with opposition groups and prepare for new elections in September.... Whether such a process is acceptable to the crowds on the streets of Cairo is far from clear: there is little evidence that Mr. Suleiman ... would be seen as an acceptable choice, even temporarily." ...

... ** New York Times: "President Hosni Mubarak appeared increasingly isolated on Saturday, with protests entering their 12th day and the Obama administration and some members of the Egyptian military and civilian elite pursuing plans to nudge him from power. The country’s newly named vice president, Omar Suleiman, and other top military leaders were discussing steps to limit Mr. Mubarak’s decision-making authority and possibly remove him from the presidential palace in Cairo — though not to strip him of his presidency immediately, Egyptian and American officials said. A transitional government headed by Mr. Suleiman would then negotiate with opposition figures to amend Egypt’s Constitution and begin a process of democratic changes." ...

... New York Times: "Reporters in Cairo faced a second day of violent intimidation and government detention on Friday even as dozens of foreign journalists and rights advocates were still being detained, suggesting that the effort to stifle the flow of news out of Egypt had slowed but not ended." ...

... Washington Post: "After an initially cautious response, European leaders are largely backing the increasingly tough line on Egypt taken by Washington, with Britain, France and Germany all reiterating President Obama's insistence that a transition happen 'now.'" ...

... Washington Post: "Egypt temporarily suspended its natural gas supply to Israel as a security precaution after an explosion at a terminal in the northern Sinai Peninsula, Israel radio said Saturday. The Egyptian regional governor told Nile News TV that he suspected 'sabotage' at the el-Arish gas terminal but did not elaborate, the Associated Press reported. The blast set off a fire that could be seen for dozens of miles." ...

     ... AFP Update: "Unknown saboteurs attacked an Egyptian pipeline supplying gas to Jordan, forcing authorities to switch off gas supply from a twin pipeline to Israel, an official told AFP. The attackers used explosives against the pipeline in the town of Lihfen in northern Sinai, near the Gaza Strip, the official said. It was initially thought the pipeline to Israel was attacked."

The Hill: "President George W. Bush has canceled an event in the famously neutral country Switzerland because of expected protests to his presence there. Bush was supposed to give the keynote address at a Jewish group's charity gala on Feb. 12 in Geneva. Leftist groups had planned to protest the visit.... But several human rights groups had also filed criminal complaints against Bush...."

The Commentariat -- February 4

President Obama made a statement about Egypt this afternoon:

     ... At 2:35 min. into the video below, President Obama takes only one question, that one coming from Reuters's Alister Bull:

     ... Here's Politico's liveblog of the presser. The full press conference is here, but you'll get the meat of it from the excerpts above:

Noam Chomsky in the Guardian: it isn't radical Islam that worries U.S. leaders -- it's independence; the U.S. supports the regimes that support us.

Maram Mazen, a Bloomberg reporter who was on vacation in her native Cairo, is set upon by plainclothesmen & police. A policeman tells her, "You will be lynched." Video.

Christiane Amanpour interviews Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman:

     ... Here's Amanpour's print report on the interview.

Nicholas Kristof reports again from Tahrir Square in Cairo with vivid descriptions like this: "As I arrived near the square in the morning, I encountered a line of Mr. Mubarak’s goons carrying wooden clubs with nails embedded in them." Here's a video report from Kristof:

New York Times Editors: Egyptian President Hosni "Mubarak’s attempt to blame the opposition and foreigners for the mayhem ... is patently absurd.... Mr. Mubarak has lost the legitimacy to continue governing Egypt, but he has chosen survival over his people.... An important question is what role the army — which gets nearly $1.5 billion in annual American aid — is prepared to play.... Egypt and its people need a quick transition to an era of greater political and economic freedoms. The violence is making that transition harder." Here's Christiane Amanpour's report of her interview of Mubarak, which the Editors mention:

... Here's a related story by Amanpour. ...

... Rachel Maddow explains the Mubarak strategy of violence & why his paid "demonstrators" are attacking journalists:

... Jeff Zeleny of the New York Times: "... as the crisis in Egypt has intensified this week, elevating foreign affairs above domestic political skirmishes, the potential Republican candidates and the party’s leaders in Congress have, with only a few exceptions, had little to say.... The lack of debate underscores the relative absence of muscular Republican voices on foreign affairs in general." CW: biggest loudmouth: the Newt.

Zachary Goldfarb & Brady Dennis of the Washington Post: "The Obama administration is likely to recommend reducing the size of mortgages eligible for government backing..., a move that could make getting a home loan in high-priced areas ... more expensive.... The proposal to let the higher limits lapse is among the most concrete elements in [a] long-awaited review, which examines various options for reshaping the role government plays in the mortgage finance market."

Robert Reich in Salon on House Republican budget cuts: "They discovered the job of tackling the budget will be far bigger and tougher than it looked from the far end of the campaign trail. Americans don't want big spending cuts. They want to cut what doesn't work. And now congressional Republicans have got to explain this to the Tea Partiers, who are still howling and yelling."

Betty Friedan & unidentified 1960s-era "housewife." New Yorker art.CW: Today is the fifth anniversary of feminist Betty Friedan's death & the 90th anniversary of her birthday. Last week I linked to this New Yorker article by Louis Menand on the impact of Friedan's 1963 book The Feminine Mystique. To celebrate the advances in women's rights that Friedan espoused & helped inspire, Sunday night at 10 pm ET (right after the Super Bowl!) PBS is airing a documentary about Nancy Reagan, who just said no to feminism, too. Emily Bazelon has a review of the PBS special here. So, Republicans, you wanna wait till after the Nancy Reagan Show to eliminate that PBS funding?

Local News

You are voting for the first time in the history of our state to codify discrimination into our constitution. -- Zach Wahls ...

... Zach Wahls, a 19-year-old student, speaks before the Iowa legislature against a resolution to end civil unions in the state. It's an amazing speech in every way:

Stephen Colbert comments on Ohio Gov. John Kasich's all-white cabinet:

... CW: in case you were wondering, Kasich is a Republican. It isn't his fault. He only knows white people.

News Ledes

President Obama met with Canadian PM Stephen Harper, this afternoon. They held a joint press conference. AP: "President Barack Obama on Friday appealed to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to begin an orderly process to relinquish the power he has held for 30 years. But Obama stopped short of calling for Mubarak's immediate resignation. 'My hope is he will end up making the right decision,' Obama said...." Washington Post story here. See videos of statement above. ...

... AP: "President Barack Obama will take questions from reporters Friday on the continuing violence in Egypt during what may be a pivotal day in the crisis, as anti-government demonstrators aim to escalate their street protests. Obama and members of his administration are edging closer to blaming the government of authoritarian President Hosni Mubarak ... for the violent clashes in Cairo." ...

... AP: "U.S. intelligence agencies are drawing criticism from the Oval Office and Capitol Hill that they failed to warn of revolts in Egypt and the downfall of an American ally in Tunisia. President Barack Obama has told National Intelligence Director James Clapper that he was 'disappointed with the intelligence community' over its failure to predict the outbreak of demonstrations would lead to the ouster of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunis...." ...

... New York Times: "Defying a wider government crackdown, tens of thousands of Egyptians packed Cairo’s central Tahrir Square on Friday, chanting slogans, bowing in prayer and waving Egyptian flags to press a campaign for the removal of President Hosni Mubarak that has transfixed the Arab world and tested American diplomacy." Story has been updated; the new lede: "Cracks in the Egyptian establishments’s support for President Hosni Mubarak began to appear Friday as jubilant crowds of hundreds of thousands packed the capitol’s central Tahrir Square to call for his ouster, this time unmolested by either security police or uniformed Mubarak loyalists."

New York Times: "A lawsuit brought by the trustee for the victims of Bernard L. Madoff’s multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme accuses the owners of the Mets of being so enamored of the enormous profits they earned while investing over decades with Mr. Madoff that they ignored repeated and specific warnings that he might have been operating a fraud. The lawsuit, unsealed in federal bankruptcy court in Manhattan on Friday morning, contends that the team’s owners, Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz, used the profits from their investments in Madoff to establish personal fortunes, create dozens of family trusts and financially fuel their array of businesses, from the Mets to real estate to the creation of a cable sports network."

New York Times: "The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, warned Congressional Republicans on Thursday not to 'play around with' a coming vote to raise the government’s legal borrowing limit or use it as a bargaining chip for spending cuts.... It was the first time that Mr. Bernanke, who in contrast to his predecessors has avoided taking sides in partisan debates on fiscal matters, had spoken out on the debt ceiling issue."

Politico: "Mark Kelly, husband of wounded Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, will fly the space shuttle Endeavour's final mission in April, according to a source familiar with the decision. Kelly and NASA are expected to make an announcement at a press conference Friday." AP update here.

Hattiesburg (Mississippi) American: "A federal judge has dismissed part of a lawsuit filed by Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant and 10 other Mississippians challenging the constitutionality of the health care reform law. U.S. District Judge Keith Starrett, in a 23-page decision handed down Thursday, said Bryant and the other plaintiffs did not have standing to file the lawsuit."