The Conversation -- July 20, 2024

Maureen Dowd of the New York Times: "It makes me sad that Biden doesn't see what's inescapable: If he doesn't walk away gracefully right now, he will likely go down as a pariah and ruin his legacy. The race for the Oval today is between two delusional, selfish, stubborn old guys, and that's a depressing state of affairs.... Shockingly, even as the Republicans roar out of Milwaukee, vibrating with joy, Biden's brain trust continues to run a lousy campaign, as though nothing has changed.... Really, what the Democrats need is a thrilling open convention, rather than a coronation."

Boyz Klub. Amanda Marcotte of Salon: "The GOP, already the party of sexism, is getting more gratuitous with its toxic masculinity. Everywhere one looked at the convention, Republicans were exalting maleness.... Women were welcome, but only as support staff.... They certainly aren't valued as leaders in a party where men live in a constant state of paranoia about being emasculated."

All My Judges. Kyle Cheney of Politico: "Donald Trump is on the cusp of emerging unscathed from his four criminal prosecutions -- thanks almost entirely to the decisions of four judges he appointed. Trump's three Supreme Court picks formed a decisive bloc to declare presidents immune from prosecution for official conduct -- freezing the charges he faces in multiple jurisdictions for trying to subvert the 2020 election and putting his New York conviction in doubt. Then his nominee to the federal court in Florida, Judge Aileen Cannon, handed him another victory by dismissing the charges he faces for hoarding classified documents and concealing them from investigators."

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Interesting Times

Peter Baker, et al., of the New York Times: "Sick with Covid and abandoned by allies, President Biden has been fuming at his Delaware beach house, increasingly resentful about what he sees as an orchestrated campaign to drive him out of the race and bitter toward some of those he once considered close.... He considers Representative Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker, the main instigator, but is irritated at [President Barack] Obama as well, seeing him as a puppet master behind the scenes.... Mr. Biden has made clear that he finds it particularly rich that the architects of historic Democratic losses in the 1994 and 2010 midterm elections would be lecturing him about how to save the party after he presided over a better-than-expected midterm in 2022....

"While Mr. Biden and his team publicly insist that he is staying in the race, privately people close to him have said that he is increasingly accepting that he may not be able to, and some have begun discussing dates and venues for a possible announcement that he is stepping aside. One factor that may stretch out a decision: Advisers believe that Mr. Biden would not want to do it before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel visits Washington on Wednesday at the initiative of Republicans to address Congress, unwilling to give the premier the satisfaction given their strained relations lately over the Gaza war."

Marie: On balance, Joe Biden has been the best U.S. president since F.D.R. To insist upon destroying that remarkable achievement by swinging for a sputtering second term seems like a mighty dumb calculation.

Alex Gangitano of the Hill: "President Biden on Friday said that former President Trump offered a 'dark vision for the future' during his speech at the Republican National Convention, standing firm that he is not dropping out of the 2024 race." MB: I do remind you that every politician who is contemplating ending a race for ofice insists right up till the minute s/he quits that s/he will stay in the race. As a partical matter, Biden and his team should not say he is going to quit until they figure out the most advantageous way to do so. (Also linked yesterday.)

Carol Lee, et al., of NBC News: "Members of President Joe Biden's family have discussed what an exit from his campaign might look like, according to two people familiar with the discussions. The overall tone of the conversations has been that any exit plan -- should Biden decide to take that step, as some of his closest allies increasingly believe he will -- should put the party in the best position to beat ... Donald Trump while also being worthy of the more than five decades he has served the country in elected office, these people said. Biden's family members have specifically discussed how he would want to end his re-election bid on his own timing and with a carefully calculated plan in place." (Also linked yesterday.)

Annie Karni & Robert Jimison of the New York Times: At a regularly weekly meeting earlier this month, "Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the former speaker, recently told her colleagues in the California delegation that if President Biden were to end his campaign she would favor the 'competitive' process of an open primary rather than an anointment of Vice President Kamala Harris as the new Democratic presidential nominee.... When asked about Mr. Biden, she said she did not think he could win, citing polling data.... She believes even Ms. Harris would be strengthened to win the general election by going through a competitive process at the convention." Politico's story, by Sarah Ferris & Christopher Cadelago, is here.

From the New York Times Biden campaign liveblog Friday: "President Biden vowed on Friday to return to the campaign trail next week, maintaining his public defiance even as people close to the president said they believed he had begun to waver privately about whether to stay in the race.... Some people in Mr. Biden's camp have told Democratic allies that the president's resolve to stay in the race has been most shaken by three developments: the decision by Representative Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker, to weigh in strongly on his candidacy, new state polls showing that his path to an Electoral College victory has grown far more remote and a spending boycott by key party donors.... Representative Greg Landsman, who had flipped his Ohio district to Democrats in 2022, urged the president to step aside.... Representative Sean Casten of Illinois delivered a similar message in an essay in the Chicago Tribune." ~~~

Robert Jimison: "As President Biden faces mounting calls from within his own party to discontinue his re-election campaign, a group of Black Democrats is working to rally support for him -- but also to send a firm message that Vice President Kamala Harris is the sole alternative to lead the ticket if he opts to withdraw."

Luke Broadwater: "Representative Zoe Lofgren, Democrat of California and a respected voice on Capitol Hill, sent Biden a letter last night calling for him to drop out of the race."

Noam Scheiber: "A major labor union in Washington State has called on President Biden to quit his re-election bid, saying that if 'he continues to demonstrate that he is unable to effectively campaign, and subsequently loses,' a second Trump administration would create an 'immediate risk' for workers. The union, Local 3000 of the United Food and Commercial Workers, represents about 50,000 workers in grocery, retail and other fields in the Pacific Northwest."

Zach Montague: "Kevin O'Connor, the White House physician, said in a letter that President Biden's Covid symptoms had 'improved meaningfully' after four doses of the antiviral drug Paxlovid.... The president's pulse and blood pressure, as well as bloodwork and other measurements, were 'absolutely normal,' the letter said."

Shane Goldmacher & Theodore Schleifer: "Michael Moritz, the billionaire Silicon Valley venture capitalist and a top Democratic donor, is calling for President Biden to step aside, becoming one of the party's largest contributors to go public with his concerns about the president's candidacy."

Nicholas Nehamas: "Top Democratic Party officials on Friday urged the Democratic National Convention's rules committee to choose to nominate President Biden through a virtual roll call vote rather than on the convention floor, as Mr. Biden continues to lose support from Democrats about whether he should be on the ticket at all.... Some [Democratic elected officials] have worried that the party is trying to nominate Mr. Biden as soon as possible to lock him in as the party's standard-bearer...."

Tim Balk: "Representative Morgan McGarvey, a first-term Democrat from Kentucky, called on President Biden to withdraw...."

Jimison: "Representative Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico called on President Biden to 'step aside to give Democrats the best opportunity to win this November.' Vasquez ... faces a tight challenge to his congressional seat.... Today alone 10 congressional Democrats joined the chorus of party members calling for Biden to exit the race. This is the most urging the president to withdraw his candidacy in a single day since calls began nearly three weeks ago."

Jimison: "Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, another vulnerable Democrat who faces a well-funded Republican challenger in this year's election, has become the fourth senator to call on President Biden to drop out of the race. In a statement, he says that he agrees with voters from his state who 'think the president should end his campaign.'" (Also linked yesterday.)

Yash Roy of the Hill: "Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), who has already called on President Biden to withdraw from the presidential race, says Biden did not recognize him at a ceremony in Normandy, France last month. 'Every time we crossed paths and I caught his eye, he would break into that big, wide Joe Biden grin and say how glad he was to see me. It was like that just last Christmas at the White House Ball,' Moulton wrote in a column in the Boston Globe.'More recently, I saw him in a small group at Normandy for the 80th anniversary of D-Day. For the first time, he didn't seem to recognize me,' he added." (Also linked yesterday.)

Caroline Vakil of the Hill: "Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), who is up for reelection this cycle, on Friday became the third Senate Democrat to call on President Biden to exit the race. While Heinrich called the president 'one of the most accomplished presidents in modern history' in a statement, he also argued that 'this moment in our nation's history calls for a focus that is bigger than any one person.'" (Also linked yesterday.)

Mychael Schnell of the Hill: "Four more House Democrats are calling on President Biden to step aside from the 2024 race, increasing the pressure on the incumbent as concerns mount in the party over his ability to beat former President Trump in November. Reps. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), Marc Veasey (D-Texas), Jesús 'Chuy' García (D-Ill.) and Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) issued a joint statement Friday morning, writing that while they have 'great admiration' for Biden, the public worries over his age and fitness for office are threatening his chances of winning the election, zeroing in on his disastrous debate performance last month." (Also linked yesterday.)

Nicholas Fandos of the New York Times: "Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York urged Democrats to reconsider their efforts to replace President Biden as their nominee, warning that members of her party were discounting his electoral strengths and hurtling ahead without a clear succession plan. In a late-night livestream on Instagram, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez acknowledged that there were good-faith arguments for Mr. Biden to leave the ticket. But she said the ongoing debate was being clouded by wealthy donors to a 'disturbing' degree and being distorted by social media, 'groupthink' and anonymous leaks by her colleagues to the news media.... 'I have not seen an alternative scenario that I feel will not set us up for enormous peril,' [she said].... She predicted that Democrats would only fracture further over who should replace Mr. Biden if he dropped out."

Harris Bombs with Donors. Theodore Schleifer & Lisa Lerer of the New York Times: "Vice President Kamala Harris tried to buck up the Democratic Party's biggest donors on Friday, telling about 300 of them that there was little to worry about in President Biden's campaign.... But several listeners said they found the meeting overall to be of little value and even, at times, condescending, believing that the message ignored donors' legitimate concerns about the Biden-led ticket. Ms. Harris, of course, is in a delicate position: She must demonstrate loyalty to her boss but also be prepared to jump immediately to the top of the Democratic ticket if Mr. Biden were to withdraw.... A campaign official ... said Ms. Harris had joined the call at the request of the White House.... After Ms. Harris stopped speaking..., one participant who was unmuted could be overheard calling the entire call 'ludicrous.'"

Dan Balz of the Washington Post: "Within the past month, cascading events have changed the dynamic and possibly the ultimate trajectory of the [presidential] election. Leaving his convention..., Donald Trump is in a stronger position politically than at any point in the campaign, or for that matter in any of the three campaigns he has run since he was first a candidate in 2016. Meanwhile, many Democrats despair that President Biden could lead them to a broad defeat that could leave the White House, House and Senate in Republican control. But they also worry that, even if the president yields to calls to step aside, a possible replacement, whether Vice President Harris or one of several governors talked about as possible candidates, would carry significant risks as well."

Eric Levitz of Vox: "The Trump campaign is at once a savvy, disciplined operation and an illiberal narcissist's personality cult.... The tension between these tendencies was on lurid display at this week's Republican National Convention. At the behest of Trump and his allies, the RNC approved a new GOP platform, one free of calls for federal abortion bans or any explicit opposition to same-sex marriage.... Trump used some of the RNC's primetime speaking slots to signal sympathy for nonwhite voters, younger Americans, and union members.... The most politically damaging manifestation of Trump's weirdness and authoritarianism at the RNC ... was the candidate's own address.... The Republican nominee is unpopular, odd, authoritarian, and beatable. Democrats despondent over their own standard-bearer's shortcomings should not embrace defeatism, but rather, get themselves a normal and age-appropriate nominee."

Trump Looked Like a Loser Thursday Night. Patrick Healy of the New York Times: "After beginning his speech with calls for unity ..., the former president turned the convention into a Trump rally, attacking 'crazy Nancy Pelosi' and slamming [President] Biden by name.... He ripped into Democrats on Social Security, Medicare, the border and energy policy, saying America was 'stupid' under Biden while ad-libbing about Hannibal Lecter and having the next Republican convention in Venezuela.... Biden may have messed up the June debate, but Trump's own cognitive functioning was messing up the July convention.... Democrats are so worried about Biden, but he is not the one who poses a huge risk to the economy, national security and civil rights." (Also linked yesterday.)

Dan Pfeiffer in the Message Box: "From the outset, the goal of the Republican Convention was to humanize Trump and normalize MAGA extremism.... Don't remind voters of the chaos and incompetence that caused them to reject Trump four years prior.... A sense of inevitability loomed over the convention and permeated the media coverage, magnified by the near-miss assassination attempt on the former President. His party and even some in the media are treating Trump as a candidate of destiny. But Trump is not inevitable. He is vulnerable. Yes, he is ahead in the polls today, but he can be beaten.... The speech wasn't good.... It was low energy, bordering on somnambulant. Trump couldn't discuss his policy agenda because that would stick a thumb in the eye of most voters. There was no message.... It's easy to forget, given the tone and tenor of the press coverage over the last week, but the majority of voters in this country are anti-MAGA." (Also linked yesterday.)

James Poniewozik, the New York Times' teevee critic, assesses the fourth night of the RNC convention: "The night began with a pageant of hypermasculinity, with musclemen and ripped garments. It led to Mr. Trump's taking the stage with a new, somber voice as he recounted his brush with death. Then, over the course of a digressive hour-and-a-half speech, he somehow changed back before our eyes....This is what male identity politics looks like. Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News personality -- who has embraced the alt-right angst over testosterone levels -- spoke off the cuff, suggesting that the shooting established Mr. Trump as a leader on a biological level. 'A leader is the bravest man,' Mr. Carlson said. 'This is a law of nature.'... But the splashiest spectacle brought Hulkamania to Milwaukee." And so on. (Also linked yesterday.)

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Courtney Hagle of Media Matters: "At the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Thursday..., Donald Trump gave a rambling speech late into the night in which he demanded Democrats drop criminal investigations against him, pushed 2020 election conspiracy theories and said Democrats are 'cheating on elections,' erroneously claimed that immigrants are 'coming from mental institutions and insane asylums,' and cracked incoherent jokes about Hannibal Lecter.... Despite the reality of the former president's remarks..., many newspaper front pages on Friday morning ran stories highlighting Trump's recounting of the recent assassination attempt and claiming that his convention speech was 'somber,' 'unifying,' and 'healing.'" The article reproduces front pages from the Detroit News, St. Paul, Minneosota's Pioneer Press, the Baltimore Sun, the Dallas Morning News, the Boston Globe, and others. ~~~

     ~~~ IOW, if -- like the vast majority of Americans -- you didn't sit through it as Jill Filipovic did, you might not know the speech "was incoherent, wildly digressive, and often bizarre without being at all entertaining.... This is not a well man, and this is not a man fit for the presidency.... It's hard to overstate just how bad his speech was.... Trump is an elderly man in decline."

When a former President messes with a speech written by professionals, it never goes well. (Sorry about that bit at the end; no parallel intended): ~~~

Yvonne Sanchez, et al., of the Washington Post: "Despite the brimming confidence of Trump supporters, the campaign is preparing them to question the results if things don't go their way. Trump has preemptively questioned the outcome of the election, sowing doubt in the results long before votes have been cast. In his convention speech on Thursday, he falsely said Democrats 'used covid to cheat' in the 2020 presidential election. 'We're never going to let it happen again,' he said. Trump has refused to promise to accept the results no matter the winner, which the Biden campaign said in May is a 'danger to the Constitution.' In a May interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Trump said..., 'If everything's honest, I'd gladly accept the results.... If it's not, you have to fight for the right of the country.'"

Glenn Thrush, et al., of the New York Times: "Investigators found a small drone in the car owned by the gunman who tried to assassinate ... Donald J. Trump -- and believe it was used to survey the site of Mr. Trump's rally in Butler, Pa., at least once before the shooting, according to law enforcement officials. Thomas Crooks, 20, visited the area near the fairgrounds used for the rally on July 7 -- six days before the event -- and appears to have made another trip the morning of the shooting, according to geolocation data found on one of his two cellphones, the officials said. At some point last Saturday, Mr. Crooks seems to have flown the drone to gather footage for a layout of the Butler Farm Show grounds using a preprogrammed flight path, according to an official briefed on the situation.... The Secret Service did not seek to use drones to provide agents with aerial views of the rally, according to a statement from the Federal Aviation Administration." ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Wait a minute. A 20-year-old lone gunman does aerial surveillance of the venue but the Secret Service does not? I'm beginning to think their "security plan" could be boiled down to one word: "Whatever."

Hannah Knowles of the Washington Post: "... Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said they spoke on Friday as the U.S. presidential race hangs over the future of the war in Ukraine. Zelensky said in a statement that he emphasized the importance of U.S. support for Ukraine amid Russia's invasion..., and added that he and Trump agreed 'to discuss at a personal meeting what steps can make peace fair and truly lasting.' Trump, in a social media post about their phone call, said he will 'end the war' and that 'Both sides will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the violence' -- but did not elaborate on the terms he would accept." MB: If it were true that Trump could end the war -- a claim he had made repeatedly -- then the grotesque immorality of not ending it while people suffered and died would be the main reason for shunning him. But of course the "I alone can fix it guy" is a lying braggart.

"A Very Fine Person" Gets Five Years. Hank Sanders of the New York Times: "A South Carolina man who was serving in the United States Marine Corps when he stormed the United States Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and stole a police officer's riot shield to help break into the building was sentenced on Friday to nearly five years in prison, according to federal prosecutors. The man, Tyler Bradley Dykes, 26, who was previously convicted of a felony for his actions while marching in the 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Va., was sentenced by Judge Beryl A. Howell of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia to four years and nine months in prison for assaulting law enforcement during the 2021 riot, the U.S. Department of Justice said." MB: Chris Hayes reported that Dykes had endorsed Donald Trump for president. Of course.

Rikers Springs Weisselberg. Aaron Katersky & Peter Charalambous of ABC News: "Allen Weisselberg, the former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, was released from jail Friday. Weisselberg served 100 days in New York City's Rikers Island jail complex after being sentenced in April to five months in jail for committing perjury in ... Donald Trump's civil fraud case." (Also linked yesterday.)

Ivan Nechepurenko of the New York Times: "A court in Russia on Friday sentenced Evan Gershkovich, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal, to 16 years in a high-security penal colony, ending his espionage case but possibly opening a way for a prisoner swap between the United States and Russia. The harsh sentence represented the first espionage conviction of a Western reporter in modern Russia. But the expedited nature of the case suggested that Moscow might be ready to trade Mr. Gershkovich.... Dow Jones, the parent company of the Journal, called the conviction 'disgraceful' and a 'sham.'" (Also linked yesterday.)

Hiroko Tabuchi of the New York Times: "Calling plastic pollution one of the world's most pressing environmental problems, the Biden administration on Friday said that the federal government, the biggest buyer of consumer goods in the world, would phase out purchases of single-use plastics. The administration also said it planned tougher regulations on plastic manufacturing, which releases planet-warming greenhouse gases and other dangerous pollutants. The efforts, which the White House called the first comprehensive strategy to tackle plastic use nationwide, aim to reduce demand for disposable plastic items while also helping to create a market for substitutes that are reusable, compostable or more easily recyclable."

John Yoon of the New York Times: "Representative Sheila Jackson Lee, a Democrat from Texas who was a leading voice for racial justice and progressive causes during the three decades she served in the House, died on Friday. She was 74."

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Tennessee. Phil Williams, a Nashville News Channel 5 reporter, confronts a group of neo-Nazis who were harassing people in the downtown entertainment district. Besides pummeling the neo-Nazis with facts that didn't fit their narrative, Williams said (in response to one of them calling him a "loser" and a "scumbag"), "When I look at you guys, I do not think 'master race.'" Sweet.

The Conversation -- July 19, 2024

From the New York Times Biden campaign liveblog Friday: "Some people in Mr. Biden's camp have told Democratic allies that the president's resolve to stay in the race has been most shaken by three developments: the decision by Representative Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker, to weigh in strongly on his candidacy, new state polls showing that his path to an Electoral College victory has grown far more remote and a spending boycott by key party donors.... Representative Greg Landsman, who had flipped his Ohio district to Democrats in 2022, urged the president to step aside.... Representative Sean Casten of Illinois delivered a similar message in an essay in the Chicago Tribune." ~~~

Robert Jimison: "As President Biden faces mounting calls from within his own party to discontinue his re-election campaign, a group of Black Democrats is working to rally support for him -- but also to send a firm message that Vice President Kamala Harris is the sole alternative to lead the ticket if he opts to withdraw."

Luke Broadwater: "Representative Zoe Lofgren, Democrat of California and a respected voice on Capitol Hill, sent Biden a letter last night calling for him to drop out of the race."

Theodore Schleifer: "Vice President Kamala Harris is set to address a network of major Democratic donors on short notice Friday afternoon, according to two people invited to the call.... It is unclear whether Ms. Harris plans to encourage the restive donor base to calm down or to deliver some other message."

Noam Scheiber: "A major labor union in Washington State has called on President Biden to quit his re-election bid, saying that if 'he continues to demonstrate that he is unable to effectively campaign, and subsequently loses,' a second Trump administration would create an 'immediate risk' for workers. The union, Local 3000 of the United Food and Commercial Workers, represents about 50,000 workers in grocery, retail and other fields in the Pacific Northwest."

Zach Montague: "Kevin O'Connor, the White House physician, said in a letter that President Biden's Covid symptoms had 'improved meaningfully' after four doses of the antiviral drug Paxlovid.... The president's pulse and blood pressure, as well as bloodwork and other measurements, were 'absolutely normal,' the letter said."

Shane Goldmacher & Theodore Schleifer: "Michael Moritz, the billionaire Silicon Valley venture capitalist and a top Democratic donor, is calling for President Biden to step aside, becoming one of the party's largest contributors to go public with his concerns about the president's candidacy."

Nicholas Nehamas: "Top Democratic Party officials on Friday urged the Democratic National Convention's rules committee to choose to nominate President Biden through a virtual roll call vote rather than on the convention floor, as Mr. Biden continues to lose support from Democrats about whether he should be on the ticket at all.... Some [Democratic elected officials] have worried that the party is trying to nominate Mr. Biden as soon as possible to lock him in as the party's standard-bearer...."

Tim Balk: "Representative Morgan McGarvey, a first-term Democrat from Kentucky, called on President Biden to withdraw from the race...."

Jimison: "Representative Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico called on President Biden to 'step aside to give Democrats the best opportunity to win this November.' Vasquez ... faces a tight challenge to his congressional seat.... Today alone 10 congressional Democrats joined the chorus of party members calling for Biden to exit the race. This is the most urging the president to withdraw his candidacy in a single day since calls began nearly three weeks ago."

Jimison: "Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, another vulnerable Democrat who faces a well-funded Republican challenger in this year's election, has become the fourth senator to call on President Biden to drop out of the race. In a statement, he says that he agrees with voters from his state who 'think the president should end his campaign.'"

Yash Roy of the Hill: "Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), who has already called on President Biden to withdraw from the presidential race, says Biden did not recognize him at a ceremony in Normandy, France last month. 'Every time we crossed paths and I caught his eye, he would break into that big, wide Joe Biden grin and say how glad he was to see me. It was like that just last Christmas at the White House Ball,' Moulton wrote in a column in the Boston Globe. 'More recently, I saw him in a small group at Normandy for the 80th anniversary of D-Day. For the first time, he didn't seem to recognize me,' he added."

Alex Gangitano of the Hill: "President Biden on Friday said that former President Trump offered a 'dark vision for the future' during his speech at the Republican National Convention, standing firm that he is not dropping out of the 2024 race." MB: I do remind you that every politician who is contemplating ending a race for ofice insists right up till the minute s/he quits that s/he will stay in the race. As a practical matter, Biden and his team should not say he is going to quit until they figure out the most advantageous way to do so.

Caroline Vakil of the Hill: "Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), who is up for reelection this cycle, on Friday became the third Senate Democrat to call on President Biden to exit the race. While Heinrich called the president 'one of the most accomplished presidents in modern history' in a statement, he also argued that 'this moment in our nation's history calls for a focus that is bigger than any one person.'"

Mychael Schnell of the Hill: "Four more House Democrats are calling on President Biden to step aside from the 2024 race, increasing the pressure on the incumbent as concerns mount in the party over his ability to beat former President Trump in November. Reps. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), Marc Veasey (D-Texas), Jesús 'Chuy' García (D-Ill.) and Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) issued a joint statement Friday morning, writing that while they have 'great admiration' for Biden, the public worries over his age and fitness for office are threatening his chances of winning the election, zeroing in on his disastrous debate performance last month."

Carol Lee, et al., of NBC News: "Members of President Joe Biden's family have discussed what an exit from his campaign might look like, according to two people familiar with the discussions. The overall tone of the conversations has been that any exit plan -- should Biden decide to take that step, as some of his closest allies increasingly believe he will -- should put the party in the best position to beat ... Donald Trump while also being worthy of the more than five decades he has served the country in elected office, these people said. Biden's family members have specifically discussed how he would want to end his re-election bid on his own timing and with a carefully calculated plan in place."

James Poniewozik, the New York Times' teevee critic, assesses the fourth night of the RNC convention: "The night began with a pageant of hypermasculinity, with musclemen and ripped garments. It led to Mr. Trump's taking the stage with a new, somber voice as he recounted his brush with death. Then, over the course of a digressive hour-and-a-half speech, he somehow changed back before our eyes....This is what male identity politics looks like. Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News personality -- who has embraced the alt-right angst over testosterone levels -- spoke off the cuff, suggesting that the shooting established Mr. Trump as a leader on a biological level. 'A leader is the bravest man,' Mr. Carlson said. 'This is a law of nature.'... But the splashiest spectacle brought Hulkamania to Milwaukee."

Ivan Nechepurenko of the New York Times: "A court in Russia on Friday sentenced Evan Gershkovich, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal, to 16 years in a high-security penal colony, ending his espionage case but possibly opening a way for a prisoner swap between the United States and Russia. The harsh sentence represented the first espionage conviction of a Western reporter in modern Russia. But the expedited nature of the case suggested that Moscow might be ready to trade Mr. Gershkovich.... Dow Jones, the parent company of the Journal, called the conviction 'disgraceful' and a 'sham.'"

Rikers Springs Weisselberg. Aaron Katersky & Peter Charalambous of ABC News: "Allen Weisselberg, the former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, was released from jail Friday. Weisselberg served 100 days in New York City's Rikers Island jail complex after being sentenced in April to five months in jail for committing perjury in ... Donald Trump's civil fraud case."

Trump Looked Like a Loser Last Night. Patrick Healy of the New York Times: "After beginning his speech with calls for unity ..., the former president turned the convention into a Trump rally, attacking 'crazy Nancy Pelosi' and slamming [President] Biden by name.... He ripped into Democrats on Social Security, Medicare, the border and energy policy, saying America was 'stupid' under Biden while ad-libbing about Hannibal Lecter and having the next Republican convention in Venezuela.... Biden may have messed up the June debate, but Trump's own cognitive functioning was messing up the July convention.... Democrats are so worried about Biden, but he is not the one who poses a huge risk to the economy, national security and civil rights."

Dan Pfeiffer in the Message Box: "From the outset, the goal of the Republican Convention was to humanize Trump and normalize MAGA extremism.... Don't remind voters of the chaos and incompetence that caused them to reject Trump four years prior.... A sense of inevitability loomed over the convention and permeated the media coverage, magnified by the near-miss assassination attempt on the former President. His party and even some in the media are treating Trump as a candidate of destiny. But Trump is not inevitable. He is vulnerable. Yes, he is ahead in the polls today, but he can be beaten.... The speech wasn't good.... It was low energy, bordering on somnambulant. Trump couldn't discuss his policy agenda because that would stick a thumb in the eye of most voters. There was no message.... It's easy to forget, given the tone and tenor of the press coverage over the last week, but the majority of voters in this country are anti-MAGA."

~~~~~~~~~~

Presidential Race

Marie: I've been reading or hearing quite a bit of "Democrats in disarray" patois. Quite the opposite is true. Here is the Democratic party in its greatest existential crisis since probably 1980 when Teddy Kennedy challenged President Jimmy Carter for the nomination (and that did not go well for party or the country). Yet instead of being at each others' throats, the leaders of today's party are, albeit individually, carrying the same or similar messages. Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama. That's pretty amazing. The odd man out, of course, is Joe Biden -- the guy who matters most. But this is not "disarray." It's "negotiations." It may not turn out well, but the signs -- at the moment -- are promising.

Michael Shear, et al., of the New York Times: "Several people close to President Biden said on Thursday that they believe he has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November and may have to drop out of the race, bowing to the growing demands of many anxious members of his party. One of the people close to him warned that the president had not yet made up his mind to leave the race after three weeks of insisting that almost nothing would drive him out. But another said that 'reality is setting in,' and that it would not be a surprise if Mr. Biden made an announcement soon endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement." (Also linked yesterday.)

Marianna Sotomayor, et al., of the Washington Post: "Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi has told some House Democrats she believes President Biden can be persuaded fairly soon to exit the presidential race amid serious doubts he can win in November, according to three Democratic officials familiar with her private discussions.... Pelosi is taking a strong, behind-the-scenes role in trying to resolve the political crisis by playing intermediary for upset rank-and-file Democrats and relaying those messages to the White House." (Also linked yesterday.)

Adam Cancryn, et al., of Politico: "President Joe Biden's reelection bid appeared to be nearing the point of collapse on Thursday, amid a cascade of warnings from the Democratic Party's top leaders that they have lost confidence in his candidacy. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi each told Biden in separate meetings over the last week that he should reconsider his reelection run or risk losing and dragging the rest of the party down with him. Schumer was 'pretty harsh' in his conversation with Biden, said one senior Hill Democrat briefed on the discussion.... A senior Biden aide told Politico that 'Biden is more committed to staying in than ever.'" (Also linked yesterday.)

Natasha Korecki, et al., of NBC News: "President Joe Biden's political world is collapsing. Top allies have either publicly or privately called on him to step aside. Major donations have fallen off a cliff. Grassroots fundraising is not keeping up with the demands of a campaign that needs to aggressively scale up three months before the presidential election. Members of his own re-election effort have already declared he has no path to victory.... There is now a palpable sense that the ground has shifted underneath him, according to five people with knowledge of the situation, even among some of the president's most defiant internal backers who now believe the writing is on the wall. 'We're close to the end,' a person close to Biden said." (Also linked yesterday.)

Tyler Pager & Michael Scherer of the Washington Post: "Former president Barack Obama has told allies in recent days that President Biden's path to victory has greatly diminished and he thinks the president needs to seriously consider the viability of his candidacy, according to multiple people.... Obama has spoken with Biden only once since the debate, and he has been clear in his conversations with others that the future of Biden's candidacy is a decision for the president to make. He has emphasized that his concern is protecting Biden and his legacy, and has pushed back against the idea that he alone can influence Biden's decision-making process.... In some conversations, Obama, who has long looked to data for political insights, has told people he is concerned that the polls are moving away from Biden, that ... Donald Trump's electoral path is expanding and that donors are abandoning the president." (Also linked yesterday.)

Kellen Browning of the New York Times: "Senator Jon Tester of Montana called on President Biden to drop his campaign for re-election on Thursday night, becoming the second sitting Democratic senator to publicly join the effort to push Mr. Biden out of the race. 'I have worked with President Biden when it has made Montana stronger, and I've never been afraid to stand up to him when he is wrong,' Mr. Tester, a vulnerable incumbent whose opponent has sought to tie him tightly to Mr. Biden, said in a statement. 'And while I appreciate his commitment to public service and our country, I believe President Biden should not seek re-election to another term.' Mr. Tester's Washington office said he was also endorsing an open process to select the nominee at the Democratic National Convention, rather than throwing his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris." The CBS News story is here.

Reid Epstein of the New York Times: "Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland, a key member of the House committee that investigated the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, sent President Biden a four-page letter this month that compared the 81-year-old commander in chief to a tiring baseball pitcher and urged him to consult with fellow Democrats about whether to continue his campaign.... The letter, the authenticity of which Mr. Raskin confirmed on Thursday, begins with nearly three pages of lavish praise for Mr. Biden.... But the crux of the letter is a four-paragraph metaphor comparing the president to the Boston Red Sox pitcher Pedro Martínez, a Hall of Famer who was left on the mound for the eighth inning of Game Seven of the 2003 American League Championship Series despite being tired. Mr. Martínez allowed three runs, tying the game before the Yankees won with a walk-off home run in the 11th inning that denied the Red Sox a trip to the World Series, which they had not won in 85 years." (Also linked yesterday.)

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Joe Scarborough, the former congressman, ally of President Biden and influential host of the MSNBC show 'Morning Joe,' on Thursday morning all but called on Mr. Biden's aides to help him exit the race. Mr. Scarborough has been blunt that the president's debate performance against ... Donald J. Trump on June 27 was calamitous but has also interviewed Mr. Biden since and was sympathetic to him in the days following the debate. On Thursday, the host cited polling for the president that has taken a massive slide and fund-raising that has disappeared. He did not lay the blame at Mr. Biden's feet, but instead at what he described as a 'bubble' of people around the president who were shielding him."(Also linked yesterday.)

Hailey Fuchs of Politico: "Allies of Vice President Kamala Harris have begun courting Democratic donors to provide financial support for her if President Joe Biden drops out of the 2024 race. One Democratic donor adviser has begun collecting pledges from female Democratic donors to support Harris, while a women's political organization has begun speaking to its donor base in an effort to ensure an initial wave of contributions to a potential Harris campaign...."

Lisa Lerer & Michael Bender of the New York Times: "... in a speech designed to place a friendlier face on Trumpism, the former president couldn't resist a handful of exaggerations and personal attacks on Democrats.... [The] speech, designed to debut the new message [of unity], underscored Mr. Trump's challenge with discipline. He stuck to the script at the start. But as the clock ticked well beyond the one-hour mark, he couldn't resist falling back into the kind of rambling, unscripted diatribe that has long been his signature style. At more than 90 minutes.... Mr. Trump's ultimate success will depend on whether, for the final 15 weeks of the campaign, he can contain his self-destructive tendencies and temper his preference for vengeance and unpopular, hard-right policies."

The New York Times liveblogged the Republican National Convention's big night. Here are some of the reporters' entries:

Jess Bidgood: "Hulk Hogan has torn off his shirt to reveal a Trump/Vance tank top, and I can't believe I just wrote that.... Eric Trump is claiming his father has been persecuted and censored, and he's describing the attempted assassination of his father as part of that narrative.... 'The greatest retribution will be our success,' he says." ~~~

Shawn McCreesh: "Melania Trump walked out while a choral symphony by Ludwig Van Beethoven played (it was Symphony No. 9 in D Minor, Op. 125). This was a fleeting moment of grace and femininity sandwiched between Hulk Hogan ripping off his T-shirt and Kid Rock screeching 'American Bad Ass.'"

Jonathan Swan: "Trump's team wants him to deliver this speech as if he's the president. The fake White House projection backdrop is part of the effect."

Charles Homans: "The arena is pin-drop quiet as Trump tells the story of his shooting."

Jim Rutenberg: "As Trump calls for an end to 'discord and division,' it's worth noting that his entire political brand has for so long been about denigrating opponents and perceived 'enemies," often in highly personalized and often false terms --- starting with the birther lie.... 'They're destroying our country.' Kind of division-y?"

Maggie Haberman: "Trump just criticized 'crazy Nancy Pelosi,' shortly after calling for not demonizing political rivals."

Swan: "Trump takes a break from his 'unity' speech to revive his false claims about election fraud."

Bidgood: "Trump is painting an apocalyptic picture of the country today. He talked about a migrant 'invasion' and said the country was on the verge of World War III."

Haberman: "The effort in the speech was to make Trump softer, even while focusing on his policy contrasts. But he hasn't stuck with it, and is riffing and vamping throughout the speech."

Linda Qui: "[Trump claimed,] 'We built most of the wall.'... Officials put up new primary barriers where none previously existed along only 47 miles." Qui has posted numerous "This Is False" analyses throughout Trump's speech.

Edward Wong: "Trump is now painting a portrait of the U.S. at odds with the lived reality.... He says the crime rate is going up. Federal data shows that the crime rate has plummeted nationwide."

Bidgood: "Trump has gone on long riffs about 'partisan witch hunts,' unspooling his grievances against Democrats. He's not exactly building a bridge to the other side. But I'm not sure that a night featuring bombastic speakers like Hulk Hogan and Dana White was ever going to do that."

Reid Epstein: "Democrats, who are in despair after three weeks of Biden's post-debate tailspin, seem reinvigorated watching this Trump speech. The false accusations of election fraud, name-calling and greatest hits from his campaign rallies are part of what Democrats are happy to highlight about Trump, and tonight he is doing it for them himself."

Homans: "The message of the first half of this speech seemed to be 'I have been changed.' The message of the second half -- assuming we're in it -- seems to be 'I have not been changed all that much.'"

Maya King: "The seats toward the top of the arena are slowly starting to empty out as Trump nears the 90-minute mark of his speech."

Adam Nagourney: "This very long Trump acceptance speech ends with a promise to 'Make American Great Again,' Melania Trump joining him onstage and red, white and blue balloons dropping from the ceiling on the cheering crowd."

Look for the Elder Statesmen. So it's the final night of the Republican National Convention, the grand finale, if you will, and this THIS THIS is a partial lineup of speakers Donald Trump has chosen to precede him: John Nieporte, top golf professional at one of Trump's clubs; Alina Habba, one of Trump's lawyers; Tucker Carlson, failed Fox "News" host; comedian Russell Brand, whom several women accused of sexual assault; Eric Trump; and to introduce Trump: Dana White, president of the Ultimate Fighting Championship who slapped his wife multiple times on camera. (In fairness, early on, before national broadcast teevee coverage began, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo garnered a slot.) (Most info. from the NYT liveblog.) Apparently Kid Rock is the "entertainment." National political conventions tend to be fairly cheesy shows, but aside from Clint Eastwood and the empty chair (RNC 2012), there has seldom been a more ridiculous spectacle.

Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post: "... Donald Trump's 92-minute speech accepting the Republican presidential nomination ... rambled, often incoherently, through a hit parade of his favorite falsehoods, many of them ad-libbed instead of drawn from his prepared remarks. Here are 34 claims that caught our attention, in the order in which he made them." Here's CNN's fact-check.

** Lest We Forget. New York Times Editors: "This week, Republicans have tried to rewrite the four years of Trump's presidency as a time of unparalleled peace, prosperity and tranquility...[.] The record of what Mr. Trump actually did in office bears little resemblance to that description. Under his leadership, the country lurched from one crisis to the next, from the migrant families separated at the border to the sudden spike in prices caused by his trade war with China to the reckless mismanagement of the Covid pandemic. And he showed, over and over, how little respect he has for the Constitution and those who take an oath to defend it. For Americans who may have forgotten that time, or pushed it from memory, we offer this timeline of his presidency. Mr. Trump's first term was a warning about what he will do with the power of his office -- unless American voters reject him."

All Trump, All the Time. Griffin Eckstein of Salon: X, the social media platform owned by Trump megadonor Elon Musk, is promoting Trump campaign-curated content to all U.S. users, regardless of whether they have opted out of Trump-related content.... Banner ads for the Trump campaign donning the #Trump2024 tag appear for all U.S. users, even those who've blocked words, topics, and hashtags related to the candidate or his campaign or muted the advertiser. Additionally, the #MAGA tag displays an edited image of the former president from his attempted assassination and the #Trump2024 hashtag displays an American flag."

New York Times: "A massive global technology outage on Friday took down airlines, medical services, TV broadcasts, banks and scores of other business and services around the world, a stunning example of the fragile dependence the global economy has on certain software and the cascading effect it can have when things go wrong. The outage was attributed to CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity firm whose software is used by scores of industries around the world to protect against hackers and outside breaches. Several governments said they found no evidence of a computer attack. A software update issued by CrowdStrike appeared to be at the root of problem...." This is a liveblog. `~~

     ~~~ The Washington Post's liveblog is here.

Michael Levenson of the New York Times: "Lou Dobbs, the conservative television and radio host who used his platforms at CNN and Fox Business to promote baseless conspiracy theories and who became an ardent supporter of ... Donald J. Trump, has died. He was 78."

~~~~~~~~~~

The Conversation -- July 18, 2024

Michael Shear, et al., of the New York Times: "Several people close to President Biden said on Thursday that they believe he has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November and may have to drop out of the race, bowing to the growing demands of many anxious members of his party. One of the people close to him warned that the president had not yet made up his mind to leave the race after three weeks of insisting that almost nothing would drive him out. But another said that 'reality is setting in,' and that it would not be a surprise if Mr. Biden made an announcement soon endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement."

Marianna Sotomayor, et al., of the Washington Post: "Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi has told some House Democrats she believes President Biden can be persuaded fairly soon to exit the presidential race amid serious doubts he can win in November, according to three Democratic officials familiar with her private discussions.... Pelosi is taking a strong, behind-the-scenes role in trying to resolve the political crisis by playing intermediary for upset rank-and-file Democrats and relaying those messages to the White House."

Marie: I've been reading or hearing quite a bit of "Democrats in disarray" patois. Quite the opposite is true. Here is the Democratic party in its greatest existential crisis since probably 1980 when Teddy Kennedy challenged President Jimmy Carter for the nomination (and that did not go well for party or the country). Yet instead of being at each others' throats, the leaders of today's party are, albeit individually, carrying the same or similar messages. Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama. That's pretty amazing. The odd man out, of course, is Joe Biden -- the guy who matters most. But this is not "disarray." It's "negotiations." It may not turn out well, but the signs -- at the moment -- are promising.

Adam Cancryn, et al., of Politico: "President Joe Biden's reelection bid appeared to be nearing the point of collapse on Thursday, amid a cascade of warnings from the Democratic Party's top leaders that they have lost confidence in his candidacy. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi each told Biden in separate meetings over the last week that he should reconsider his reelection run or risk losing and dragging the rest of the party down with him. Schumer was 'pretty harsh' in his conversation with Biden, said one senior Hill Democrat briefed on the discussion.... A senior Biden aide told Politico that 'Biden is more committed to staying in than ever.'"

Natasha Korecki, et al., of NBC News: "President Joe Biden's political world is collapsing. Top allies have either publicly or privately called on him to step aside. Major donations have fallen off a cliff. Grassroots fundraising is not keeping up with the demands of a campaign that needs to aggressively scale up three months before the presidential election. Members of his own re-election effort have already declared he has no path to victory.... There is now a palpable sense that the ground has shifted underneath him, according to five people with knowledge of the situation, even among some of the president's most defiant internal backers who now believe the writing is on the wall. 'We're close to the end,' a person close to Biden said."

Tyler Pager & Michael Scherer of the Washington Post: "Former president Barack Obama has told allies in recent days that President Biden's path to victory has greatly diminished and he thinks the president needs to seriously consider the viability of his candidacy, according to multiple people briefed on his thinking. Obama has spoken with Biden only once since the debate, and he has been clear in his conversations with others that the future of Biden's candidacy is a decision for the president to make. He has emphasized that his concern is protecting Biden and his legacy, and has pushed back against the idea that he alone can influence Biden's decision-making process.... In some conversations, Obama, who has long looked to data for political insights, has told people he is concerned that the polls are moving away from Biden, that ... Donald Trump's electoral path is expanding and that donors are abandoning the president."

Reid Epstein of the New York Times: "Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland, a key member of the House committee that investigated the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, sent President Biden a four-page letter this month that compared the 81-year-old commander in chief to a tiring baseball pitcher and urged him to consult with fellow Democrats about whether to continue his campaign.... The letter, the authenticity of which Mr. Raskin confirmed on Thursday, begins with nearly three pages of lavish praise for Mr. Biden.... But the crux of the letter is a four-paragraph metaphor comparing the president to the Boston Red Sox pitcher Pedro Martínez, a Hall of Famer who was left on the mound for the eighth inning of Game Seven of the 2003 American League Championship Series despite being tired. Mr. Martínez allowed three runs, tying the game before the Yankees won with a ... home run in ... that denied the Red Sox a trip to the World Series, which they had not won in 85 years."

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Joe Scarborough, the former congressman, ally of President Biden and influential host of the MSNBC show 'Morning Joe,' on Thursday morning all but called on Mr. Biden's aides to help him exit the race. Mr. Scarborough has been blunt that the president's debate performance against ... Donald J. Trump on June 27 was calamitous but has also interviewed Mr. Biden since and was sympathetic to him in the days following the debate. On Thursday, the host cited polling for the president that has taken a massive slide and fund-raising that has disappeared. He did not lay the blame at Mr. Biden's feet, but instead at what he described as a 'bubble' of people around the president who were shielding him."

~~~~~~~~~~

Presidential Race

Aamer Madhani of the AP: "President Joe Biden tested positive for COVID-19 while traveling Wednesday in Las Vegas and is experiencing 'mild symptoms' including 'general malaise' from the infection, the White House said. Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden will fly to his home in Delaware, where he will 'self-isolate and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time.' The news had first been shared by Unidos US President and CEO Janet Murguía, who told guests at the group's convention in Las Vegas that president had sent his regrets and could not appear [as planned] because he tested positive for the virus." (Also linked yesterday.) The New York Times story is here.~~~

     ~~~ Eli Stokols of Politico: "President Joe Biden's Covid diagnosis on Wednesday afternoon could hardly have come at a more devastating time. Not only did it cut short a two-day campaign swing in Nevada, but it threatens to deepen Democratic anxieties over -- and resistance to -- his reelection campaign, which has been teetering for nearly three weeks...."

We shall now take time out for some leaks from here and there to reporters everywhere:

Carl Hulse, et al., of the New York Times: "President Biden has become more receptive in the last several days to hearing arguments about why he should drop his re-election bid, Democrats briefed on his conversations said on Wednesday, after his party's two top leaders in Congress privately told him they were deeply concerned about his prospects. Mr. Biden has not given any indication that he is changing his mind about staying in the race..., but has been willing to listen to rundowns of new and worrying polling data and has asked questions about how Vice President Kamala Harris could win. The accounts suggest that Mr. Biden, privately at least, is striking a more open-minded posture than he did last week when he lashed out at a number of House Democrats who pressed him to step aside."

Michael Shear of the New York Times: "President Biden said in an interview released on Wednesday that he would re-evaluate whether to stay in the presidential race if a doctor told him directly that he had a medical condition that made that necessary. Mr. Biden has said repeatedly that none of his doctors have told him he has a serious medical condition. Dr. Kevin O'Connor, the White House physician, wrote after the president's physical in February that Mr. Biden is 'a healthy, active, robust, 81-year-old male who remains fit to successfully execute the duties of the presidency.'... Mr. Biden also said for the first time that he had expected to 'move on' from the presidency and 'pass it on to somebody else' but decided to run again because he believed his 'wisdom' and experience would help heal the country's worsening divisions." (Also linked yesterday.)

Reid Epstein of the New York Times: "The Democratic National Committee is pushing back by a week its plans to nominate President Biden for re-election in a virtual roll call as the party's voters and many of its top officials continue to express discontent about heading into the general election with him atop their ticket. Top party officials announced on Wednesday that the virtual roll call for Mr. Biden would take place during the first week of August, an accommodation to Democrats who had protested about plans that would have started the voting as soon as next week." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ ABC News: "Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries pushed the party to delay its nominating process...."

Tyler Pager & Michael Scherer of the Washington Post: "House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, in separate private meetings with President Biden last week, told him that his continued candidacy imperils the Democratic Party's ability to control either chamber of Congress next year. Jeffries (D-N.Y.) met with Biden on Thursday night at the White House, and Schumer (D-N.Y.) met with him on Saturday in Rehoboth Beach, Del.... In a separate one-on-one conversation, a person close to Biden told the president directly that he should end his candidacy, saying that was the only way to preserve his legacy and save the country from another Trump term...." ~~~

~~~ Jonathan Karl of ABC News: "According to multiple well-connected Democratic sources, President Joe Biden's support from elected party leaders is crumbling.... A knowledgeable source close to both [Biden and Senator Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)] tells me Schumer had a blunt conversation with Biden [on Saturday at Rehoboth Beach], making the case it would be best if Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race. When asked about this, Schumer's spokesperson declined to comment on specifics of the meeting, saying only that 'Leader Schumer conveyed the views of his caucus.'... A source ... tells ABC News that House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has expressed similar views directly to Biden, suggesting he should drop out of the race."

MJ Lee, et al., of CNN: "Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi privately told President Joe Biden in a recent conversation that polling shows that the president cannot defeat Donald Trump and that Biden could destroy Democrats' chances of winning the House in November if he continues seeking a second term, according to four sources.... The president responded by pushing back, telling Pelosi he has seen polls that indicate he can win, one source said. Another one of the sources described Biden as getting defensive about the polls. At one point, Pelosi asked Mike Donilon, Biden's longtime adviser, to get on the line to talk over the data."

Maggie Astor of the New York Times: "Representative Adam Schiff of California said on Wednesday that President Biden should end his campaign, restarting a drip of opposition within the Democratic Party that had paused after the attempted assassination of ... Donald J. Trump over the weekend. Mr. Biden 'has been one of the most consequential presidents in our nation's history, and his lifetime of service as a senator, a vice president and now as president has made our country better,' Mr. Schiff, who is running for Senate, said in a statement to The Los Angeles Times. But, he said, 'A second Trump presidency will undermine the very foundation of our democracy, and I have serious concerns about whether the president can defeat Donald Trump in November.'" CNN's report is here. (Also linked yesterday.)

Liz Hoffman & Ben Smith of Semafor: "Joe Biden met privately in Las Vegas Wednesday with Jeffrey Katzenberg, the film producer and a top campaign adviser, who conveyed a warning: The president's donors' patience is wearing thin, and their cash soon will, too. Katzenberg, one of Biden's closest counselors and a conduit to moneyed circles in media and finance, told the president that major donors, doubtful of his ability to win in November, have all but stopped writing the kind of big checks that sustain campaigns in the home stretch, people familiar with the meeting said.... After this story was published, Katzenberg said in a statement that it was a "misread of a private meeting' and that he and Biden 'talked about everything from the convention to new ads. And by the way, we will raise the money we need to run a winning campaign.'"

Darlene Superville, et al., of the AP: "Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say President Joe Biden should withdraw from the presidential race and let his party nominate a different candidate, according to a new poll, sharply undercutting his post-debate claim that 'average Democrats' are still with him even if some 'big names' are turning on him. The new survey by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, conducted as Biden works to salvage his candidacy two weeks after his debate flop, also found that only about 3 in 10 Democrats are extremely or very confident that he has the mental capability to serve effectively as president, down slightly from 40% in an AP-NORC poll in February." (Also linked yesterday.)

Here are the New York Times' live updates of developments Wednesday night in the Republican National Convention. Some of the reporters' observations:

Eve Sampson: [Vance Gets an Endorsement.] "Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia on Wednesday signaled support for Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice-presidential nominee and one of the Senate's most outspoken opponents of American assistance to Ukraine."

Simon Levien: "Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida took a dig at both inflation under President Biden's term and Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, who was convicted on Tuesday in a bribery case...."

Chris Cameron: Peter "Navarro, who was jailed for defying a subpoena from the House Jan. 6 committee, is receiving a hero's welcome with raucous applause."

Jonathan Weisman: "Navarro's address is really putting calls for unity in the rearview mirror. 'Make no mistake, they're already coming for you,' he warns the crowd."

Cameron: "Republicans on the convention floor wildly cheered Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas as he discussed Trump's plans for mass deportations of undocumented migrants. The crowd chanted: 'Send them back.'"

Lisa Friedman: "Gov. Doug Burgum, Republican of North Dakota, who just took the convention stage, is being widely talked about as a potential secretary of the Department of Energy if Trump wins in November."

Annie Karni & Maggie Haberman: "This year, [Rudy] Giuliani -- indicted, disbarred and bankrupt -- has no speaking slot. He has been roaming around the arena for days nonetheless, recording his show and giving hours and hours of interviews to virtually anyone who could grab him. His viral spill on the convention's floor on Tuesday, in which he crashed into two folding chairs near where the Ohio delegation congregates and had to be helped back to his feet, felt like an unsubtle metaphor for his fall through the Trump era."

Michael Crowley: "Relatives of some of the 13 U.S. service members killed in the August 2021 bombing at the Kabul airport's Abbey Gate are now speaking, and accusing President Biden of indifference to their suffering. Biden has repeatedly expressed public heartbreak over the deaths of those troops. He also traveled to Dover Air Force Base to receive their remains, and met privately with their family members beforehand."

Jess Bidgood: "Kai Trump [Junior's daughter] is talking about what Trump is like as a grandfather, saying he always asks how she is doing, even when he is busy with his court cases. It's part of a concerted effort to soften Trump's image here."

Michael Gold: "As Donald Trump Jr. speaks about the shooting on Saturday, the delegates are the most rapt I've seen them this week. And there is a real energy of anticipation here ahead of J.D. Vance's keynote address."

Bidgood: "Usha Vance describes J.D. Vance as a 'meat and potatoes' kind of guy who learned to cook Indian food for her mother."

Michael Bender: "Senator J.D. Vance drew a direct line on Wednesday from his traumatic upbringing in southwest Ohio to his new standing as the top lieutenant in Donald J. Trump's conservative movement, promising the Republican National Convention that he would bring his working-class roots to Washington and help fight 'for the people who built this country.' Addressing the first national political convention he had ever attended, Mr. Vance, 39, accepted his party's vice-presidential nomination -- making him among the youngest Americans to ever fill that role -- in an upbeat speech that was by far the most consequential of his fledgling ... political career."

Bidgood: "What we are hearing tonight [from Vance], a speech that is heavy on economic populism and isolationism, may well be a preview of the future of the G.O.P."

Cameron: "Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio delivered a prime-time address at the Republican National Convention on Wednesday, highlighting his personal story, including his upbringing in a poor family that struggled with addiction, as he formally accepted his party's nomination to be ... Donald J. Trump's running mate. Mr. Vance praised Mr. Trump effusively and highlighted his own youth as he attacked President Biden as a symbol of 'corrupt Washington insiders' who have exploited Americans for generations. 'Joe Biden has been a politician in Washington for longer than I've been alive -- I'm 39 years old,' Mr. Vance said, adding, 'For half a century, he's been the champion of every major policy initiative to make America weaker and poorer.'"

Vice President Harris introduces us to J.D. Vance:

Hillbilly Elegy for Pregnant Women. Jessica Valenti in a Substack essay: "... JD Vance ... isn't just your run-of-the-mill anti-abortion Republican: he's a full-on trad husband, obsessed with forcing women in the home and calling anyone who disagrees 'childless cat ladies.'... This is a guy who opined for 1950s marriages and encouraged women to stay in abusive marriages.... Like so many men obsessed with the 'trad' movement, however, Vance shrouds his old-school misogyny as concern for women's happiness -- or even a way to buck against capitalism[.]... The new VP candidate not only supports a federal abortion ban, but opposes rape and incest exceptions. When he was asked about abortion access for sexual violence in a 2021 interview, Vance replied that 'two wrong don't make a right.'... Over the last few weeks, Vance has been feigning moderation in interviews in a shameless attempt to show Trump he can toe the line." Read down to the bit about how the New York Times is helping Vance out by clipping a remark to make him sound as if he's against a national ban when he says the opposite. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

JD Vance and Donald Trump are trying to 'soften' their position on abortion. Don't believe it. When they tell us they want to ban abortion, they mean it. -- Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) ~~~

~~~ Dan Diamond & Meryl Kornfield of the Washington Post: "Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) ... last year joined an effort to enforce the Comstock Act, the 151-year-old federal law that has become a lightning rod in the nation's abortion debate. The Comstock Act, which bans the mailing of abortion-related materials, has not been invoked for that purpose in about a century.... 'We demand that you act swiftly and in accordance with the law, shut down all mail-order abortion operations,' Vance and about 40 fellow Republican lawmakers wrote [to Attorney General Merrick Garland]. The Republicans called on the Justice Department to potentially prosecute physicians, pharmacists and others 'who break the Federal mail-order abortion laws,' citing additional federal laws that apply to criminal conspiracy and money laundering."

Noah Berlatsky in Public Notice: "Trump chose JD Vance as his running mate this week, and a certain segment of the news media immediately rushed to declare the start of a new kind of working-class Republicanism.... [But] Vance's populism is a shallow, cynical branding exercise. Like his Republican brethren, and like Trump, his populism is paper thin; he views the working class with contempt and embraces policies that would entrench poverty and gut social mobility. Vance has benefited throughout his career from the gullibility of the mainstream media, which never tires in its search for a white working-class whisperer.... When he wasn't memoir-ing, Vance was a finance guy, establishing venture capital funds backed by right-wing billionaire oligarchs like Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen.... When your populism appeals to Peter Thiel, it's not really populism.... Vance has joined a Trump ticket dedicated to funneling money to oligarchs and crushing workers; his populist policies are a thinly veiled excuse to attack his political enemies; his memoir is an extended rant about his contempt for poor people." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Fake populism is a GOP substitute for or addition to fake patriotism & fake Christianism. At least since the heyday of Barry Goldwater & Richard Nixon, everything about the GOP "code" has been phony. The main event is always a fervent belief in oligarchy/kleptocracy. If the sideshows get a few updates and tweaks, so what? They work. They pull in the suckers.

I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other. -- J.D. Vance to Steve Bannon, 2022 ~~~

~~~ Jonathan Martin in Politico Magazine: "... Donald Trump didn;t just select a running mate here -- he doused political kerosene on the raging Republican fire over foreign policy. By tapping the 39-year-old Sen. J.D. Vance, one of the party's leading national security doves, Trump strengthened the hand of the isolationist forces eager to undo the hawkish GOP consensus that has endured since the Reagan era." (Also linked yesterday.)

The Upside-Down World of J.D. Vance. Andy Kroll of ProPublica & Nick Surgey of Documented: "Sen. J.D. Vance ... told a group of influential young conservatives in a closed-door speech in 2021 that they should stand up for 'nonconventional people' who speak truth, such as Infowars founder Alex Jones."

Brad Reed of Raw Story: "... some of ... Donald Trump's white nationalist supporters are unhappy with the choice [of J.D. Vance]. At issue is the fact that Vance's wife, Usha Vance, is the daughter of Indian immigrants, which [according to Newsweek] is leading some far-right influencers to be suspicious that he won't really be as tough on immigration as they hope. 'Do we really expect that the guy who has an Indian wife and named their kid Vivek is going to support white identity?' asked neo-Nazi podcaster and one-time Trump dinner guest Nick Fuentes recently." (Also linked yesterday.)

The New York Times has a short video on the Secret Service's failure to protect Donald Trump and his supporters from a gunman.

David Fahrenthold, et al., of the New York Times: "Among the thousands of people streaming in to cheer ... Donald J. Trump at a campaign rally on Saturday, local officers spotted one skinny young man acting oddly and notified other law enforcement. The Secret Service, too, was informed, through radio communication. The suspicious man did not appear to have a weapon. Remarkably, law enforcement had found the right man -- Thomas Matthew Crooks, a would-be assassin, [about an hour before he shot Mr. Trump and others]. Then they lost track of him. Twenty minutes before violence erupted, a sniper, from a distance, spotted Mr. Crooks again and took his picture.... At least two local officers were pulled from traffic detail to help search for the man. But the Secret Service ... did not stop [Mr. Trump] from taking the stage.... The call to let the rally go ahead while law enforcement looked for a potentially dangerous person is one of many Secret Service decisions now being called into question."

Pierre Thomas, et al., of ABC News: "Law enforcement officials investigating the assassination attempt on Donald Trump told lawmakers Wednesday that 20 minutes passed between the time U.S. Secret Service snipers first spotted the gunman on a rooftop and the time shots were fired at the former president, according to several law enforcement officials and lawmakers briefed on the matter.... According to the sources, the timeline presented in the briefing was as follows:

• 5:10 p.m. Crooks was first identified as a person of interest
• 5:30 p.m. Crooks was spotted with a rangefinder
• 5:52 p.m. Crooks was spotted on the roof by Secret Service
• 6:02 p.m. Trump takes the stage
• 6:12 p.m. Crooks fires first shots"

     ~~~ Marie: Let's agree that a prudent person, aware of what was happening before 5:53 p.m., would not allow the 6:02 p.m. action to occur. Something was really, really screwed up there.

Glenn Thrush, et al., of the New York Times: "F.B.I. officials told members of Congress on Wednesday that the gunman who tried to kill ... Donald J. Trump used his cellphone and other devices to search images of Mr. Trump and President Biden, along with an array of public figures. The 20-year-old gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel Park, Pa., also looked up dates of Mr. Trump's appearances and the Democratic National Convention, according to people on two conference calls held to answer lawmakers' questions. And, at least once, his browsing history signaled concerns about his own mental state. He also seems to have previewed his attack on Steam, a gaming platform he frequented, telling fellow gamers he planned to make his 'premiere on July 13, the day of the shooting."~~~

     ~~~ Marie: So this does rather put the lie to Republicans' assertions that President Biden was behind the assassination attempt. Do we hear profuse apologies? No?

Here's the New York Times liveblog of developments Wednesday in the assassination attempt on Donald Trump: ~~~

Eduardo Medina & Jeanna Smialek: "New details emerged Wednesday about the attempted assassination of Donald J. Trump, as a county official ... Richard Goldinger, the district attorney of Butler County ... revealed that at least one local police officer had fired on the would-be assassin as shots erupted at a campaign rally. But it was uncertain if the local officer had hit the gunman, who was killed by Secret Service snipers, the agency has said." This is the pinned item.

Campbell Robertson: "Edward Natali, a Butler Township supervisor, said in a social media post that officers from the township's police department, originally assigned to traffic patrol, responded to reports of a suspicious person outside the Trump rally on Saturday. After a search, they heard reports that he was on the roof of a warehouse building. One of the officers hoisted another up to check, and the gunman turned his weapon on the officer, 'who was not in position to wield his weapon to defend himself,' Natali wrote. 'He fell to safety and was injured in the process.' The gunman fired at the former president immediately after this encounter."

Mark Walker: "The F.A.A. grants special permission to conduct drone operations in restricted airspace for improved emergency response and aerial intelligence. The area was restricted because Trump was appearing publicly.... The Secret Service did not seek to use drones to provide agents with aerial views of the rally in Butler, Pa., on Saturday, a spokesperson for the F.A.A. confirmed to The New York Times."

Glenn Thrush: "F.B.I. officials, speaking on a conference call with members of Congress, said that that the gunman's search history on his electronic devices included images of public figures -- including Trump and Biden -- along with dates of Trump appearances and the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, according to a person who was on the call." (Also linked yesterday.)

Isaac Stanley-Becker, et al., of the Washington Post: “Local police alerted the Secret Service before ... Donald Trump's rally Saturday that they lacked the resources to station a patrol car outside a key building where a gunman later positioned himself and shot at Trump, according to local and federal law enforcement. Richard Goldinger, the district attorney in Butler County, Pa., where the Trump rally took place, said the Secret Service 'was informed that the local police department did not have manpower to assist with securing that building.' Goldinger's account was confirmed by a Secret Service official briefed on the incident...." (Also linked yesterday.)

Perry Stein & Devlin Barrett of the Washington Post: "Special Counsel Jack Smith formally filed notice on Wednesday that he will appeal a Florida judge's decision to dismiss the 40-count mishandling of classified documents and obstruction case against ... Donald Trump. The appeal, laying out Smith's argument for why the case should not be dismissed, is expected to land in coming weeks in the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals...." CNN's report is here. (Also linked yesterday.)

Thinkin' About Thinkin' About Resigning. Nicholas Fandos & Tracey Tully of the New York Times: "Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey has privately told allies that he is considering resigning from Congress after his conviction in a sweeping bribery scheme rather than face a potential expulsion vote, according to three people familiar with his remarks. Two of the people, who were not authorized to discuss the conversations, cautioned that Mr. Menendez has not made a final decision and could still fight to serve out his term. Publicly, he has maintained his innocence and vowed to appeal Tuesday's guilty verdict on 16 felony counts."

Tierney Sneed, et al., of CNN: "Former Donald Trump White House adviser Peter Navarro was released from a Miami federal prison Wednesday after completing his four-month sentence for defying a subpoena from the January 6 congressional committee. Navarro is expected to quickly travel to Milwaukee so he can appear at the Republican National Convention, where his former boss has been formally nominated as the GOP's 2024 presidential nominee." (Also linked yesterday.)

John Ismay of the New York Times: "On July 17, 1944, hundreds of sailors were loading ammunition onto two cargo ships in Port Chicago, Calif., not far from San Francisco, when an explosion powerful enough to be felt 50 miles away killed 320 of the men, most of them Black. More than 400 sailors were injured in the blast, the cause of which has never fully been determined. When ordered to continue loading ammunition the next day, 258 Black sailors objected until safety conditions improved. All of them were subjected to a sham trial and convicted of various offenses, though most of them eventually agreed to return to work at the piers.... The group of 50 men who continued to resist were given dishonorable discharges and jail sentences.... On Wednesday, 80 years after the explosion at Port Chicago, the Navy secretary, Carlos Del Toro, officially exonerated all 258 Black sailors, none of whom are still alive."

Praveena Somasundaram of the Washington Post: "The Supreme Court on Tuesday granted a last-minute stay of execution to a Texas man who for more than a decade has requested DNA testing to prove his innocence in a 1998 killing. Ruben Gutierrez was convicted of capital murder and sentenced to death 25 years ago. He was scheduled to receive a lethal injection at a Texas prison about 20 minutes after the high court said it would delay the execution until it decides whether to review Gutierrez's case, his attorney said."

~~~~~~~~~~

Israel/Palestine, et al.

The New York Times' live updates of developments Thursday in the Israel/Hamas war are here.

Dan Lamothe & Alex Horton of the Washington Post: :The Pentagon on Wednesday declared an end to its sea-based humanitarian mission off Gaza, an effort that enabled delivery of millions of pounds of food and other supplies to the war-ravaged territory even as it faced near-constant setbacks and ultimately fell short of expectations.... Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, the No. 2 officer at U.S. Central Command..., told reporters during a news briefing ... [that t]he operation will shift to the Israeli port in Ashdod, where personnel will continue to facilitate aid deliveries...." (Also linked yesterday.)

News Ledes

New York Times: "Bob Newhart, who burst onto the comedy scene in 1960 working a stammering Everyman character not unlike himself, then rode essentially that same character through a long, busy career that included two of television's most memorable sitcoms, died on Thursday at his home in Los Angeles. He was 94." ~~~

~~~ The New York Times suggests six great Newhart performances.