The Commentariat -- June 20, 2016

Afternoon Update (see also links marked "NEW" below):

Jonathan Chait reports on the state of Trump's campaign, which Chait characterizes as "a garbage fire." -- CW ...

... Scott Lemieux, in LG&M, has more, and it's fairly hilarious. -- CW ...

... Laura Clawson of Daily Kos on Lewandowski's firing: "... whoever's left on the campaign should maybe have considered that you don't deliver classic 'Friday news dump' material like this on a Monday morning." -- CW

Ben White of Politico: "Big Wall Street donors have a message for Hillary Clinton: Keep Elizabeth Warren off the ticket or risk losing millions of dollars in contributions." -- CW

** Making America Poor Again. Nolan McCaskill of Politico: "Donald Trump's presidency would 'significantly' weaken the country, driving the U.S. into a 'lengthy recession' with nearly 3.5 million job losses and a 7 percent unemployment rate, according to a Moody's analysis released Monday."

Josh Gerstein of Politico: "The Supreme Court announced Monday that it will take up a case exploring when immigrants detained solely for immigration violations have the right to be released from jail. The justices agreed to consider a federal appeals court decision that essentially found detained immigrants were entitled to a bond hearing after six months in custody and every six months thereafter." -- CW

*****

NEW. Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "The Supreme Court on Monday refused to hear a Second Amendment challenge to a Connecticut law banning many semiautomatic rifles. The law, enacted in 2013 in the wake of the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., made it a crime to sell or possess the firearms, which critics call assault weapons. The decision ... is part of a trend in which the justices have given at least tacit approval to broad gun-control laws in states and localities that choose to enact them." -- CW

NEW. AP: "The Supreme Court says the Labor Department must do a better job of explaining why it is changing a longstanding policy on whether certain workers deserve overtime pay. The justices on Monday asked a lower court to take another look at whether federal law allows the agency to require overtime pay for people working as service advisers at auto dealerships. The 6-2 ruling comes in a case involving a California auto dealer that claims its service advisers are similar to car salesmen or mechanics, who are exempt from overtime requirements under the Fair Labor Standards Act." Per ScotusBlog, the dissenters were Thomas & Alito. -- CW

Be Still, My Heart. Paul Bedard of the Washington Examiner: "Justice Clarence Thomas ... is mulling retirement after the presidential election, according to court watchers." CW: No longer able to get away with "What Nino said," apparently Clarence finds having to write his own dissents way too arduous. ...

... digby: "... it sure would be poetic justice if 'The Roberts Court' ended up with Roberts and Alito huddled in their own little corner as the last remnants of the Reagan Revolution." CW ...

... BUT. Scott Lemieux, in LG&M, with a Reality Chek: "... unnamed 'court watchers,' 'mulling' retirement, suggestions that he would like to retire to do something the job allows him to do anyway ... let's just say that barring force majeure if the next president nominates Thomas's replacement I'll be shocked." -- CW

Washington Post Editors: "Having turned what could have been a wholly reasonable investigation of IRS carelessness into a partisan scandal hunt, the most concrete result from [Republican Congressional] inquiries may end up being a gratuitous attack on a longtime public servant." -- CW

Jenny Rowland in ThinkProgress: "Democrats from the House committees on Natural Resources and Homeland Security this week held a joint forum that focused on the steps that need to be taken to confront violent extremism on America's public lands. The forum comes five months after Ammon Bundy and a group of anti-government extremists took over the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Harney County, Oregon.... Panelists and members of Congress alike expressed disappointment in the issue's lack of bipartisan attention." --safari

Alana Semuels of The Atlantic: "Congresswoman Gwen Moore (D-WI) is introducing the Top 1% Accountability Act of 2016, which would require drug testing for all tax filers claiming itemized deductions totaling over $150,000.... The number of government tests and requirements for poor people receiving government aid has grown in recent years.... According to one report, more than 95 percent of tax filers making over $200,000 itemized their deductions in 2011, compared to just 13 percent of those with incomes of $50,000 or less.... The government spent $17 billion in Temporary Aid to Needy Families (commonly known as welfare) in 2013. The mortgage-interest and real-estate tax deductions cost the government $98 billion in 2013, according to CFED." --safari

Profiting from Fear. Evan Osnos of the New Yorker: "More American civilians have died by gunfire in the past decade than all the Americans who were killed in combat in the Second World War.... The story of how millions of Americans discovered the urge to carry weapons to join, in effect, a self-appointed, well-armed, lightly trained militia -- begins not in the Old West but in the nineteen-seventies.... In 1977, more than half of all American households had a gun in the house. By 2014, it was less than a third. Each gun owner now has an average of eight guns.... Much as the industry capitalized on the Los Angeles riots, it has excelled, since 9/11, at tapping into the fear of terrorism." A long read. --safari ...

... NEW. AP: "The FBI says that the Orlando nightclub shooter was not directed by a foreign terror group, but was radicalized domestically. At a news conference Monday morning, Ron Hopper of the FBI also said that in 911 calls, shooter Omar Mateen described his actions to an operator in a 'chilling, calm and deliberate manner.'" -- CW

... Emily Schultheis of CBS News: "National Rifle Association President Wayne LaPierre said Sunday that gun control legislation would not be effective in stopping mass shootings in the United States.... LaPierre ... sa[id] President Obama and other Democrats are trying to blame guns for the shooting in Orlando to deflect from their 'failure' to effectively combat terrorism." CW: Right. Because there's no possible way to write legislation that would stop a guy from walking into a gun store & buying assault weapons & ammo. ...

...Asawin Suebsaeng of The Daily Beast: "For years, the editorial page that has most fervently favored stricter gun control in America hasn't been found in The New York Times, The Washington Post, or The Boston Globe. It's been on the pages of The Onion, America's leading news-satire organization.... The horror of the past week has led Wired magazine to declare that 'only The Onion can save us now,' and for Bustle to write that the 'Orlando shooting makes this Onion article more relevant than ever.'" --safari

... Quinn Owen of ABC News: "The NRA's top lobbyist said no one should go into a nightclub 'drinking and carrying firearms' when asked about Donald Trump's comments about whether armed club-goers may have prevented the Orlando nightclub shooting, and NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre echoed those remarks in a separate interview. At a rally on Friday, the presumptive Republican nominee said the massacre would have been prevented if some of the victims had been armed." -- CW ...

... CBS New York: "Appearing on 'Face the Nation' Sunday, National Rifle Association Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre blamed a 'politically correct' federal government for the fact that the Orlando nightclub massacre gunman was taken off an FBI watch list." -- CW ...

... D'Angelo Gore of FactCheck.org (June 16): "Donald Trump said there were 'no guns on the other side' in the mass shooting in Orlando and there would've been fewer deaths 'if the bullets were going in the other direction, aimed at the guy who was just in open target practice.' But ... Adam Gruler, an Orlando police officer working security for Pulse nightclub that night, traded gunshots with the gunman, Omar Mateen, near the club's entrance.... In addition, news reports said that two of the responding officers, who were nearby and arrived at the scene not long after, also fired at Mateen before he retreated to a club bathroom with hostages." -- CW

Presidential Race

Shane Harris of The Daily Beast: "The saga of [Hillary] Clinton's email has become the candidate's biggest single point of vulnerability, and the question of whether she might be indicted in the affair is her own sword of Damocles. While criminal charges seem less likely by the day, Judicial Watch, which has pursued Clinton and her husband in court for years,has guaranteed that the political threat of the email issue won't subside...Since its founding in 1994, his group has filed suits against every presidential administration. But in Hillary Clinton, Fitton may have found his white whale." --safari

Daniel Strauss of Politico: "Bernie Sanders is on a crash course with the Congressional Black Caucus. In a letter sent to both the Sanders and Hillary Clinton campaigns, the CBC is expressing its resolute opposition to two key reforms demanded by Sanders in the run-up to the Democratic convention: abolishing the party's superdelegate system and opening Democratic primaries up to independents and Republicans." -- CW ...

... Seema Mehta of the Los Angeles Times: "The California Democratic Party on Sunday called for a broad overhaul of how the party nominates its presidential candidates, including the elimination of caucuses and most super-delegates." -- CW

Yamiche Alcindor of the New York Times: A "gathering this weekend, which was called 'The People's Summit...,' drew thousands of people to McCormick Place, a large conference center in Chicago.... The event, which was organized by National Nurses United, a labor union that campaigned heavily for [Bernie] Sanders, featured discussions about how to encourage like-minded people to run for local offices and to push groups to work together on issues like racial justice, income inequality and electoral changes. One session included discussion of protest methods, using mock sit-ins and arrests, for the Democratic National Convention next month in Philadelphia." -- CW

** NEW. "You're Fired!" Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump has fired his contentious campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, a move that comes as the presumptive Republican nominee faces challenges as he heads into the general election." CW: In a statement. Mr. Lewandowski said he was parting ways with the Trump campaign in order to spend more time with skinheads, white supremacists and armed insurrectionists. A spokesman for the International Brotherhood of Male Chauvinist Pigs announced that Mr. Lewandowski had accepted a post on their board of directors.

Jonathan Mahler of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump on Sunday renewed his call for the United States to consider profiling as a preventive tactic against terrorism in the aftermath of the mass shooting last week in Orlando, Fla. 'I hate the concept of profiling, but we have to start using common sense,' Mr. Trump ... said in an interview on CBS's 'Face the Nation.' Mr. Trump issued a similar call in December after the terrorist attack in San Bernardino, Calif...." -- CW

"What ... Trump Learned from Joe McCarthy's Right-Hand Man." Jonathan Mahler & Matt Flegenheimer of the New York Times: "[Roy] Cohn's influence on Mr. Trump is unmistakable. Mr. Trump's wrecking ball of a presidential bid -- the gleeful smearing of his opponents, the embracing of bluster as brand -- has been a Roy Cohn number on a grand scale. Mr. Trump's response to the Orlando massacre, with his ominous warnings of a terrorist attack that could wipe out the country and his conspiratorial suggestions of a Muslim fifth column in the United States, seemed to have been ripped straight out of the Cohn playbook." -- CW

Philip Bump of the Washington Post: "Supporters of Donald Trump got an unexpected [... 'emergency' ...] plea on Saturday: a request to send the billionaire money..., representing an urgent need for an infusion of $100,000 to put ads on the air in battleground states. Why Trump couldn't simply write a check to cover the costs apparently wasn't explained, but the missive ... demonstrates clearly the difficult position of the Trump campaign.... Not only are Trump's poll numbers slipping, they are at a low that no one, Republican or Democrat, has seen in the past three election cycles." -- CW ...

... Louis Nelson of Politico: Donald "Trump said in an interview that aired Sunday on NBC's 'Meet the Press' that he can win in November, with or without [Republican leaders'] support. '... It would be nice if the Republicans stuck together,' he said. 'I think that I win either way. I can win one way or the other.'" -- CW ...

... Amber Phillips of the Washington Post: "With a group of Republican delegates working to stop Donald Trump at next month's convention, House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) has given no indication that he plans to stop them. 'It's not my job to tell delegates what to do,' Ryan told NBC's Chuck Todd in an interview that aired Sunday on 'Meet the Press.' '... They write the rules. They make their decisions.'" -- CW ...

... Ed O'Keefe of the Washington Post: "Supporters of a growing anti-Donald Trump movement announced plans Sunday to raise money for staff and a possible legal defense fund as they asked new recruits to help spread the word with less than a month until the Republican National Convention." -- CW

The Mind of Donald Trump. Dan P. McAdams in The Altantic: "Narcissism, disagreeableness, grandiosity a psychologist investigates how Trump's extraordinary personality might shape his possible presidency." -- unwashed

Greg Clary of CNN: "Police arrested a 19-year-old man Saturday inside a Las Vegas theater where ... Donald Trump was holding a campaign rally after the man attempted to pull a police officer's gun from its holster during the event. Police said Michael Sandford struck up a conversation with a Las Vegas Metropolitan Police officer under the pretenses that he was seeking to get an autograph. During the conversation, police said Sandford tried to pull the officer's service weapon from its holster. Other officers also assigned to provide security at the event were quickly able to detain Sandford...." -- CW

Josh Gerstein & Maggie Severns of Politico: "Lawyers for Donald Trump are fighting claims that his Trump University real estate seminar program amounted to a racketeering operation under federal law. In a court filing Friday night, Trump's attorneys reject allegations in a federal class-action lawsuit that Trump University violated the Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act and that Trump was directly involved in those violations.... Trump is asking U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel to toss out the lawsuit, which is one of two pending class actions." -- CW

Despite MAG's negativity about MoDo's column on Cap'n. Trump (see yesterday's thread), Yastreblyansky, writing on No More Mister Nice Blog, is ever-so impressed with her abandoning the sinking yacht. -- CW

Paul Krugman: "The Republican establishment was easily overthrown because it was already hollow at the core. Donald Trump's taunts about 'low-energy' Jeb Bush and 'little Marco' Rubio worked because they contained a large element of truth. When Mr. Bush and Mr. Rubio dutifully repeated the usual conservative clichés, you could see that there was no sense of conviction behind their recitations. All it took was the huffing and puffing of a loud-mouthed showman to blow their houses down." Democrats, by contrast, believe what they say.

Beyond the Beltway

Texit. Adios, MoFos. Tom Dart of the Guardian: The Texas Nationalist Movement looks to Brexit for pointers on how to get Texans to vote for secession from the U.S. -- CW

Patrick Brennan & Cameron Knight of the Cincinnati Enquirer: "The owner of a Monroe Township[,Ohio,] gun shop was fatally shot Saturday afternoon when a student in a concealed carry permit class accidentally discharged a weapon, the Clermont County Sheriff's Office said. James Baker, 64, was shot in the neck and pronounced dead just before 1 p.m. at his KayJay Gun Shop..., the sheriff's office said in a news release. He was struck by a bullet that was fired by a class participant while practicing weapon malfunction drills." CW: This freak accident would not have been deadly if Baker had been the owner of the KayJay Smurf Ball Shop. ...

... Peter Holley of the Washington Post: A used-car dealer in Rochester, New Hampshire, is giving away AR-15s with certain auto sales. "The marketing campaign [-- "Buy a car, get an AR" --] was unveiled in May, but it has attracted new scrutiny in the wake of the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history.... [Owner Mike] Hagan, a combat veteran who served in Afghanistan, told NH1-TV that the gun sale is done in conjunction with a local firearms store that completes the required background checks.... Hagan told the station that the promotion has increased car sales. The Associated Press reported that Hagan has given away four AR-15s and one 9mm handgun, which Hagan also offers if customers decline the rifle." -- CW

Way Beyond

Nicholas Casey of the New York Times: In Venezuela, "a country with the largest oil reserves in the world, it is possible for people to riot because there is not enough food. In the last two weeks alone, more than 50 food riots, protests and mass looting have erupted around the country. Scores of businesses have been stripped bare or destroyed. At least five people have been killed. This is precisely the Venezuela its leaders vowed to prevent." -- CW

News Lede

Cleveland.com: "The Cleveland Cavaliers completed the unimaginable on Sunday night, a 93-89 Game 7 victory over the Golden State Warriors to win the franchise's first NBA championship.... LeBron James has delivered Cleveland's first professional championship in 52 years." -- CW

Comments

[MAG]

Hahahahahahahahahaha! Calling me out on my negativity of MoDo's awakening, huh! I love the image you used next to the blurb! Poifect, my deah!

[cakers]

I'm finding myself getting annoyed that Bernie Sanders, who's been a Democrat all of a year, telling the party how it should be run. I'm not strongly pro Super Delegate, which isn't how Hillary won the nomination anyway, but why should we open the primary, in which we select our party's nominee, to people who are not in our party? What is the argument for allowing Republicans to have a say in the Democratic party nominee? I can just imagine the havoc the Republicans would love to wreak in our nominating process. I know why Bernie wants to open it to independents: because he thinks he would've won with them. But Bernie, its too late. Hey Bernie, why don't you become a Republican? I hear they're hoping to replace their candidate with a new one. You might have a better chance there, and God knows, that party needs a change.

[Ken Winkes]

I'd add to the Krugman critique of the Koch-Confederates only this.

While the Republicans may not believe all of their own cant and the Reagan glitter may have worn thin over the years, making much of their empty center visible, they do believe some things.

It's just that the things they do believe are often ugly, flat out wrong, and plain unpopular with the majority of American voters.

Trump has successfully tapped into the K-C's major unspoken tenet, white superiority, by making racist remarks, bringing him enthusiastic support from the base, but not enough to win a general election. Racism is real, not part of the empty center; rather, its beating heart.

When Republicans present their Randian economic plans to lower taxes on the rich, add more regressive taxes that hurt the middle and the poor, cut the social safety net, not raise the minimum wage, they may be sincere, but in the public's view they lose again. Republican economics is both ugly and wrong, particularly so where it intersects with social policy, something becoming more evident to more people every day.

The same could be said about women's health issues. I have no doubt many who would like to ban abortion are sincere, but that position doesn't win national elections either. Nor does it acknowledge the numerous, real and often complicated situations associated with human procreation. Beyond those complications, which many have personally experienced, and electoral reality, the abortion issue immediately tangles the Right into ideological knots.

Are they for small, non-intrusive government or for a government that lurks in your bedroom just past the corner of the gun closet? It's kinda hard to figure.

So Krugman is half right. Much in the Republican closet is past its shelf life or visibly hollow, and some Republican may have simply been mouth things they don't really believe.

But there are elements of Republicanism that are still alive and well; the majority of Americans just are not buying them.

To the degree that Trump is making those ugly parts more obvious to more people, he's performing a public service.

[MAG]

Loving the journalistic snark in the morning, " ...incoming, incoming " Trump is also spending some of his time this week on a trip to Scotland, where he will visit a golf course and discuss the Brexit vote. Scotland is not represented in the Electoral College and has very few eligible voters. Ah, the wits and wags are really laying onto Trump.

...and the ever delightful Charles Pierce on" ...an Irish fool " OK, so Lewandowski was a lightweight omadhaun with the personality of sandpaper who suddenly found that he was running the campaign of the presumptive Republican nominee for president.

Hey, Trump, who's an apprentice now?

[PD Pepe]

@MAG: you bet, and add to that the story of the hanging Chad in the Bachelorette (via Maureen Dowd's awakening piece); the fancy "force majeure" used to describe the DT effect that was not reasonably anticipated or controlled ; Old bench sitter C. Thomas calling it a day none too soon for a whole lot of us; Lewandowski's biting the dust; and finally the King's apparent fall from grace. Little bits of fun–-little bits of that hopey changey cha ching.

Scotland–––get ready for big gusts of wind along with bad moves on the ninth hole.